Global dementia expected to triple by 2050 unless countries tackle risk factors

The number of people aged 40 and over living with dementia globally is expected to nearly triple in 2050 to around 153 million, from 57 million in 2019, due to aging and population growth, according to the results of a new study.

The Global Burden of Disease study, published in The Lancet Public Health, is the first to provide forecast estimates for 204 countries.

Investigators looked at 4 different risk factors for dementia and highlighted the impact these factors will have on future trends. The risk factors are high blood sugar, low level of education, obesity.

One of the findings suggests that improving access to education globally is expected to reduce the prevalence of dementia to 6.2 million cases worldwide by 2050. However, this would be thwarted by anticipated trends in hyperglycemia, obesity and smoking, which are expected to result in an additional 6.8 million cases of dementia.

“Our study offers improved predictions for dementia globally, as well as at the country level, giving policymakers and public health experts new perspectives to understand the drivers of these increases based on the best evidence. available, Emma Nichols, PhD, of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, said in a statement. “These estimates can be used by national governments to ensure that resources and support are available. are available to individuals, caregivers and health systems around the world. ”

Investigators predict that the largest increase in prevalence will occur in eastern sub-Saharan Africa, where the number of people with dementia is expected to increase by 357% to more than 3 million in 2050 from nearly 660,000 in 2019, with Djibouti (473 %), with Ethiopia (443%) and South Sudan (396%) recording the largest increases.

In addition, in the Middle East, North Africa and the Middle East, cases are expected to increase by 367% to almost 14 million against nearly 3 million individuals, with the largest increases recorded in Qatar (1926 %), United Arab Emirates (1795%), and Bahrain (1084%).

In Western Europe, the number of dementia cases is expected to increase by 74% to almost 14 million in 2050, up from nearly 8 million in 2019. Relatively small increases in cases are expected in Greece (45%), Italy ( 56%), in Finland. (58%), Sweden (62%) and Germany (65%). The number of cases in the UK is expected to increase by 75% to almost 1.6 million in 2050, from just over 907,000 cases in 2019.

In contrast, the smallest increase in the number of dementia cases is expected in the high-income Asia-Pacific region, where the number of cases is expected to increase by 53% to 7.4 million by 2050, from 4.8 million. in 2019 to 7.4 million in 2050., with a particularly small increase in Japan (27%). In this region, the risk of dementia for each age group is expected to decrease, suggesting that preventive measures, including improving education and healthy lifestyles, are having an impact.

Globally, women with dementia outnumber men with dementia in 2019, 100 to 69, and this trend is expected to continue into 2050, according to the analysis.

The investigators acknowledged that their analysis was limited by a lack of high-quality data in some parts of the world, including Central America, Eastern Europe and sub-Saharan Africa, and by studies using different methodologies and definitions of dementia.

They also acknowledged that they were not able to take into account the 12 risk factors from the Lancet Commission report 2020, due to the limited risk factors in the study and only included the risk factors. risk with strong evidence of association.

Reference

The Lancet Public Health: Global dementia cases are expected to triple by 2050, unless countries tackle risk factors. EurekAlert. Press release. January 6, 2022. Accessed January 10, 2022. https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/939299