Covid impact in region comparable to bad flu season

FAYETTEVILLE — Covid-19’s impact on the region at this point in the pandemic is about as severe as a bad flu season, members of the city’s Board of Health were told Wednesday.

That means restrictive measures such as public mask use and social distancing can continue to be rolled back, said Marti Sharkey, the city’s public health officer. Restrictive measures should end when covid-related deaths are fewer or equal to that of influenza, she said.

A metric Sharkey used was 165 covid-related deaths per day in the country, or about one death per day in the state, or about one death per week in the county or one to two deaths per month in the city.

“We as a society have decided that a bad flu season — the deaths from that — is something we tolerate,” Sharkey said. “So this is something we could tolerate without having to restrict our daily lives. I hate all that language, but that’s the way it is.”

Arkansas has reported seven covid deaths over the past seven days, an average of one per day — the first time the average has fallen to that level since May 19, 2020.

Sharkey also suggested creating a more comprehensive online dashboard to monitor covid activity in the region. The dashboard could include information on hospital staffing and beds occupied, seven-day average of deaths, variant spread, wastewater surveillance, prevalence of antibodies and vaccination progress.

The Northwest Arkansas Council ended its daily covid-19 updates in late April after covid-related hospitalizations consistently fell below a handful in the region.

However, public officials can still take preventive measures to help stave off a potential upswing in covid activity or other respiratory illnesses in fall, Sharkey said. Public buildings, schools, commercial buildings and communal living spaces should have proper filters and ventilation installed, she said.

Institutions should stockpile N95 masks now and have flexible sick leave and attendance policies, and residents should have at-home covid test kits on hand, Sharkey said.

Health professionals and residents alike should switch the conversation from concern over covid alone to respiratory illnesses in general, Sharkey said. The threats of influenza and respiratory syncytial virus likely will join a potential covid uptick after the summer, she said.

For now, the region’s covid activity is following the nationwide trend with slight increases at times, but no spikes, Sharkey said.

Flu deaths dropped significantly in the wake of the covid-19 pandemic. The state has reported 23 flu deaths for this flu season dating back to September, and reported 24 flu deaths for the 2020-21 season. Flu deaths exceeded 100 each year in the 2019-20 and 2018-19 seasons and breached 200 deaths in the 2017-18 season, according to the influenza weekly report from the Arkansas Department of Health.

The past couple of flu seasons dropped in severity because of public risk mitigation, said board member Huda Sharaf, director of the Pat Walker Health Center at the University of Arkansas.