After 3 years of COVID-19, here’s what Canada’s ‘endemic’ future could look like – National

On March 11, 2020, the world came to an abrupt halt when the World Health Organization said the covid–19 trigger a global pandemic.

Schools around the world have closed, workplaces have moved further apart, and the fast-spreading virus has exposed the fragility of health systems in many countries. Since then, the virus has made nearly seven million livesof which more than 51,000 were Canadians.

Fast forward three years and COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths are declining, more than 70% of Canadians have contracted the virus at least once and effective vaccines and treatments associated with a previous infection has allowed many people to live somewhat normal lives again.

Some experts now say the pandemic is progressing slowly transition to an endemic state – when a disease, such as COVID-19, is constantly present, often in a particular area or region. Examples of this include influenza, malaria, Ebola and hepatitis B.

“I think we see that point,” explained Dr. Zain Chagla, an infectious disease physician and associate professor at McMaster University in Hamilton.

“We see a decline in death rates since the start of the pandemic, we see a slowdown in the use of health care, we see that the population is immune to this,” he said.

Dr. Theresa Tam, Canada’s chief public health officer, echoed that sentiment.

Speaking at a news conference on Friday, she said Canadians shouldn’t expect a surge of COVID-19 in the coming months.

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“We are now at a point in Canada where COVID-19 activity has reached a relatively stable state. In recent months, there haven’t been any distinct variant-focused waves,” she said. “Over the past six to eight months, hospitalizations for COVID-19 have been relatively stable despite the continued spread of Omicron subvariants.”

In light of the good news, Chagla warned that COVID-19 will be here for “a while as it has reached every corner of the Earth”, which means there will be future infection and disease challenges. hospitalization – especially for older, immunocompromised Canadians – just as there is with the flu every year.

But if the virus is here to stay, at least for the foreseeable future, can society ever recover as a lingering threat from a new variant looms on the horizon?

New variants are likely to circulate, Chagla warned, but the impact may not be as profound as it was in 2020 or 2021.

“Many have been infected with Omicron or received a vaccine and because most of the population has seen the virus as well as a vaccine, it creates a higher barrier for health destabilization to occur,” he said. he explains.

Danielle Rice, an assistant professor at McMaster University in the Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Neurosciences, said if there were more variants on the horizon, it might cause anxiety for some, but many people are perhaps accustomed to the constant threat of a new variant of preoccupation.

Rice, who is also a clinical and health psychologist in supervised practice at St. Joseph’s Healthcare, said people’s mental health has been “resilient” during COVID-19 and is likely to continue.

“There have been challenges, like people who may feel distressed by the reality that we may be living with COVID-19, but on the other end there are people adjusting to this new reality. “, she explained.

“Generally, that’s how anxiety works, the more we are exposed to something, the less anxiety we experience.”

New variants may emerge in the future, but testing for COVID-19 may not be as widespread, Chagla said.

Instead, the message from health officials may simply be to stay home if you are sick, he added.

“I think the advice to stay home while sick is more effective in the long run,” he explained. “Rather than saying, with one disease you isolate and another disease you don’t isolate.”

At the end of January, Health Canada announced that it was ending deliveries of rapid antigen tests to provinces and territories.

Supply is not an issue, as Ottawa and provincial health authorities have millions of rapid tests in stock. However, demand appears to be declining, officials said.

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“It’s not surprising, given that we’re starting to see this gradual transition from the pandemic to a bit more normal life,” said Dr Gerald Evans, an infectious disease specialist at Queen’s University in Kingston, in Ontario.

“So it may be that in a year or so the rapid test may not necessarily be useful,” he told Global News.

As the virus has mutated over time, the emergence of new variants has also reduced the sensitivity of antigen tests, Evans said.

But, Evans argued that the reduced supply could make it difficult for people to continue testing, and many may have to start paying for it.

If people end up having to buy them, Evans suspects most won’t want to spend out of pocket.

Last week, Canada’s National Immunization Advisory Body advised those at high risk to receive another COVID-19 booster shot, starting this spring.

Recommendations from the National Advisory Committee on Immunization (NACI) indicate that an additional vaccine injection could be offered to people at higher risk of serious illness, such as the elderly, people living in long-term care homes duration and immunocompromised Canadians.

Chagla explained that focusing on increasing the high-risk population is likely the approach Canadian health officials will continue to use in the future.

“We’re starting to see a shift (from reminder campaigns) to really focus on the highest risk and less on the lower risk populations,” Chagla said.

Although vaccination rates are declining among the low-risk population, he noted it’s still too early to tell if Canada will recommend an annual COVID-19 booster soon.

In January, the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) asked its scientific advisers to consider simplifying the COVID-19 vaccination to encourage most adults and children to get vaccinated once a year. to protect against the virus.

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Under this proposal, Americans would no longer have to know how many vaccines they have received or how many months have passed since their last booster shot.

Canadian health officials have not indicated whether they are considering a similar proposal, but in a statement to Global News, Health Canada said NACI “continues to monitor the evolving evidence, including evidence on the need or potential benefits of booster shots, and will update the recommendations as needed.”

As Canadians begin to head into a new COVID-19 chapter, one where federal health officials are moving towards treating the virus as a “regularly occurring illness“, warn the experts not to forget the vulnerable population.

“Going into this pandemic phase…for most people, that means getting back to normal. But it is important that resources for the populations most at risk are maintained,” Chagla said.

“If we want to reduce testing, we really need to make sure that testing is still there for the high-risk population. And if we want to reduce vaccinations, vaccinations must be readily available to people who need them. »

Rice agreed.

She explained that before the pandemic, the company made sure to focus on protecting infants, the elderly, and the immunocompromised from infection during cold and flu season.

It will be the same battle in the future with COVID-19.

“These are transferable skills that are actually now capable of coping with the COVID-19 pandemic, potentially going into this endemic situation,” she said.

– with files from Teresa Wright and Saba Aziz of Global News