Wastewater data indicates low-risk of COVID-19 surge this fall, according to Sudbury scientist

A scientist monitoring COVID in wastewater in Sudbury, Ont. says he is “cautiously optimistic” that we won’t see a fall surge of COVID-19 cases in Northeastern Ontario. 

But earlier this month, Gustavo Yzabeta, who works at the Health Sciences North Research Institute and helps measure virus levels in wastewater samples across the northeast, said he saw an increase in the concentration of the virus in wastewater. 

He says it could have been the new omicron variant called EG.5, making its presence felt. 

“Normally we see this increase when it’s a new variant that is suddenly circulating in our populations,” Yzabeta said, “and after that if the level of balance is not as high as before the numbers have the tendency to go down.”

EG.5 has been circulating in Canada since at least May, according to the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC). 

Early evidence suggests it’s no more severe, yet it does appear better able to evade front-line immune defences, allowing it to infect — and re-infect — more people.

“It seems what we saw the last ten days was kind of a ripple more than a wave. We’ll keep a close eye on what’s happening,” Yzabeta said.

Yzabeta added the immunity landscape of people is different to what it was at the beginning of the pandemic. 

“Now we have a population that has immunity because people have been sick and have been receiving multiple vaccines.”

As for COVID vaccinations, Public Health Sudbury and Districts (PHSD) said it is still awaiting for additional direction from the Ministry of Health to choose a vaccine program and roll out strategy. 

“The plan is likely to start similar to how it has in past years where those at highest risk for COVID-19 related complications or hospitalizations will be those first available to get the vaccine, ” Nastassia McNair, the manager of the effective health practices program at PHSD said. 

She added the health unit is looking into ways that individuals can receive both the COVID-19 vaccine and the flu vaccine within the same appointment. 

Once the health unit has acquired the vaccine, McNair believes the clinics could be ready to operate within two to three days. 

In the meantime PHSD is recommending masking, self-monitoring and testing and hand-washing as the COVID and flu season looms

In a written statement to CBC, Health Sciences North said it currently has two outbreaks in the North Tower of the hospital this month, but is operating at a low risk index with about a dozen patients confirmed to have the virus.