COVID Update: Saturday June 12

Former board member John Duran provided daily updates on COVID on his Facebook page since March 2020. Many community members have found them useful. They are republished here with his permission.

Daily update of Saturday June 12, 2021

LA County case 1,245,949 (vs. 1,245,771)

Deaths in LA County 24,416 (up from 24,414)

LA positivity rate unchanged .4% (.004)

LA Hospitalizations 240 (compared to 244)

198 new cases of COVID were announced yesterday in LA County along with 5 additional deaths. Positivity rate still low at less than half a percent. Hospitalizations still stable and low at 240.

FEAR FOR THE UNVACCINATED

There is an excellent opinion piece on the front page of the CA section of LA TIMEs written by Nita Lelyveld. I totally agree with what she wrote. The title of the play is “The masks can be taken off, but the concern persists.” As California prepares to reopen, I fear for the unvaccinated ”.

For fifteen months now, I have been writing these daily updates. Sometimes I complain. Sometimes I praise it. Sometimes I wonder. Sometimes I think about it. Sometimes I wander. Sometimes I scream. Each daily update is not pre-planned. I’m just starting to type based on what I’ve read in my morning papers, the LA Times, the New York Times, and the Washington Post.

Every day we have seen the numbers increase. The number of cases and daily deaths. The positivity rate and hospitalizations which fluctuate but now remain low. But June 15 is now three days away. In three days, we’ll open the doors wide and begin a new chapter in what we hope will be “post-COVID” life.

But here is the reality. The number of cases and deaths is not going to magically disappear on Tuesday. Certainly the numbers have come back and now appear to be a trickle from where we were during the winter. Only 198 cases yesterday. Only 5 dead. Awesome! But not if you’re one of the 198 or a surviving family member for the 5 dead.

The masks fall on Tuesday. Social distancing fades Tuesday. The limited capacities disappear on Tuesday. All bars and restaurants are reopening 100%. Gyms, yoga studios, schools, 12-step meetings – all return to “normal” Tuesday. And these conditions will exist for both the vaccinated and the unvaccinated. Those who have not received a dose will NOT continue to mask themselves while their vaccinated friends remove the masks.

I have a very bad feeling about this.

Here’s the reality check – if you’re vaccinated – there’s a 99% chance you will NOT get seriously ill or die from COVID. If you don’t get the vaccine then you run the risk of the other millions of infected people. Likely to get sick – but not likely to be hospitalized or die. Good odds, right? Unless you’re one of the 600,000 dead.

But the deaths that will occur from that day forward – the overwhelming and overwhelming majority will come from the unvaccinated and there will be an occasional exception to prove the rule of statistics that 1% of those vaccinated will get sick and die.

THE RED AND BLUE “THING”

It looks like the United States will simply fall short of our national goal of reaching 70% vaccinated by July 4. At the current rate, we’re going to hit around 67% – according to an article published by CNN Today.

But thanks to politics – not science – BLUE says Joe Biden won (including California) CURRENTLY 69.9% of adults receiving at least one dose. And with 3 weeks to go. But the RED says Trump won – the average is 54.9% of adults receiving at least one dose.

When you break it down by state, 13 of the 25 states Biden took last fall hit the 70% mark. Seven other states have at least 67% adults on a single dose – so they will hit the 70% mark by July 4.

There is no state Trump took on last fall that has at least 67% adults with at least one dose of the vaccine. Closest is Nebraska at 62.8% (which is higher than the four BLUE states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Nevada).

The only BLUE states likely to miss the 70% mark by July 4 are Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia and Michigan.

I take no pleasure in bringing up these statistics. I do not wish any harm on the Red States or the Trumpers. But I absolutely despise Donald Trump for questioning COVID and vaccines – but then I quietly slipped in and got a vaccine because he wants to survive. To hell with his supporters. Let them try their luck with the virus. It’s such a horrific fault on his part that he deserves to go in the trash cans of history causing more American deaths than anyone else in our history. It’s a shame.

It’s going to be 86 degrees and sunny in LA today. If you are vaccinated, go outside and take a deep breath. If you are not vaccinated, go to CVS today and do it. Just do it. Quietly or post it on social networks. Don’t do it because you’re red or blue. But because you believe in science and data.