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A leading epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health has identified simple but essential steps each of us can take to prevent or at least limit a third wave, by first identifying four factors that will increase the number. R and thus create a wave.
The R number is the number of people that an infected person will in turn infect. So if the R number is 1.5, it means that 100 people will infect 150 more. The four factors are summarized by the acronym DOTS where S stands for “the proportion of the population susceptible to infection”, O stands for “the number of transmission opportunities, i.e. super-spread events. where many are infected by a small number of individuals “. , T means “the probability of transmission” and D means “the duration of infectivity”.
In a 25-minute interview with Karan Thapar for ThreadDr Brian Wahl, who is also a member of the Johns Hopkins India Institute’s COVID-19 Response Task Force, said that one of the four factors that make up DOTS can on its own prevent or limit another wave.
This means that people must wear masks meticulously and maintain social distancing at all times, preferably including when strangers are present indoors as well. Dr Wahl said large gatherings should be avoided at all costs. This excludes political gatherings altogether, but it also suggests avoiding large open markets, where people sometimes congregate in the thousands. Even though they are outdoors and safer than large indoor gatherings, it is best to stay away.
Dr Wahl stressed the need for ventilation at all times and suggested that even in air-conditioned rooms, people should keep doors and windows open to ensure continuous ventilation.
However, he did not give a clear answer when asked whether the Delhi government or the Maharashtra government acted too early to open malls and restaurants. In this regard, it should be noted that Britain only allowed indoor dining in restaurants at the second or third stage of its unlocking. The first step was limited to restaurants that can serve food outside. Delhi and Mumbai immediately allowed indoor meals, but limited to 50% of their capacity.
At the same time, Dr Wahl also spoke about the measures the government needs to take to reduce the proportion of the sensitive population. First, he said, “a well-defined seroprevalence survey” is needed to identify the size of this population. And also, because it is not distributed evenly across the country, to identify its location or if it exists in large clusters.
The second crucial step that the government must take is mass vaccination. To date (June 15, 2021), only 3.7% of the population has received both doses and almost 16% have received one. There is still a long way to go before reaching effective levels of mass immunization.
However, Dr Wahl was reluctant to identify the percentage level at which herd immunity works. He said this changes depending on different regions, population homogeneity, dominant variants of the virus and other such factors.
Finally, referring to the recent discovery by Public Health England that the Delta variant has mutated into a more virulent form called Delta + or AY.1 – the official name is B.1.617.2.1 – Dr Wahl said India must dramatically step up genome sequencing, but also rigidly and meticulously enforce mask-wearing and social distancing.
Watch the full interview here.
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