Covid models used to delay Freedom Day were ‘based on outdated data’

The PM announced earlier this week that the end of the lockdown would be pushed back to July 19 after the Delta variant spread rapidly

The Covid modeling for the death figures prepared before the final easing of lockdown restrictions was delayed was based on outdated information, it was reported.

The Prime Minister announced earlier this week that the end of the lockdown would be pushed back to July 19 after the Delta variant spread rapidly.

New modeling from the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modeling (SPI-M) – a SAGE subgroup – had revealed just how risky removing all social distancing could have been.

One of the worst-case scenarios for the experts was that hospitalizations would reach around the peak of the first wave, when there were more than 3,000 new British patients per day, compared to less than 200 per day now.

the Daily Telegraph Reports that in a worst-case scenario, estimates showed 203,824 more deaths by next June, with more modest estimates suggesting more than 50,000 would die.

The publication claims the models were based on “outdated” estimates of vaccine effectiveness, which would have assumed fewer people were protected by jabs.

He says modelers worked on the basis that the AstraZeneca jab would reduce hospitalizations by 77-87% after two doses, while the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) suggested 81-90%, and the University of Warwick placing between 86 and 95 percent.

Research suggests that the AstraZeneca jab is 92 percent effective after two doses.

The Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine is reportedly 96 percent effective against hospitalization of the Delta variant after two doses.

This move would have been “underestimated by the groups” with estimates going up to 90% by one and 95% by the other.

Dr Susan Hopkins, deputy director of the national infection service at Public Health England, reportedly said ministers had been aware of the information since Friday.

The Prime Minister’s official spokesperson said earlier that opening up the economy as planned could have meant “an increase in hospitalizations which would put unbearable pressure on the NHS”.

The Prime Minister’s official spokesperson said the extension of England’s lockdown measures meant “thousands more deaths can be prevented” as it would give doctors time to quickly bite more people.

Speaking at a press conference in Downing Street on Monday, the Prime Minister said the average number of people admitted to hospital in England had increased by 50% per week and 61% in the North West, adding that ministers feared this “may be the shape of things to come”.

“Because we know the ruthless logic of exponential growth and even though the link between infection and hospitalization has been weakened, it has not been broken,” he said.