Covid cases ‘increasing exponentially’ among younger age groups in England, new study finds

Cases of Covid infection ‘are increasing exponentially’ across England in younger and mostly unvaccinated age groups, scientists say.

A government-commissioned study found infections increased by 50% between May 3 and June 7, which coincided with the rise of the Delta Covid variant.

Experts from Imperial College London said their findings showed a “rapid switch” between the Alpha variant – which first appeared in the UK in September 2020 – and the Delta variant in recent weeks, the latter accounting for up to 90 percent of all coronavirus cases.

Research – which was posted as a pre-print to an online server – shows the bulk of infections are caused by children aged 5 to 12, as well as younger adults aged 18 to 24 .

Infections in these age groups are about five times higher than those over 65, the researchers said.

The data showed that the “weakened link” between infection rates and hospital admissions was “well maintained” for people aged 65 and older, while “trends converged below the age 65 ”.

The scientists said their findings from the React study suggest that the imminent extension of the vaccination program to people aged 18 and older “should help significantly to reduce the overall growth of the epidemic.”

Stephen Riley, professor of infectious disease dynamics at Imperial and one of the study’s authors, said: “The prevalence is increasing exponentially and it is being driven by the younger ones.

“And it seems to be doubling every 11 days.

“This is clearly bad news… but the bottom line here is that we are in a very different part of the UK outbreak and it is very difficult to predict how long the exponential phase will be.”

Study author Paul Elliott director of the React program and chair of epidemiology and public health medicine at Imperial, said: “I think we can be very reassured that when we look into the details, it seems like it is protecting the skin. the elderly, where virtually everyone is doubly vaccinated.

“And in the under 65 age group, where a much smaller proportion have been vaccinated or double vaccinated, most infections occur in the unvaccinated group.

“And the government has made it clear that it wants to vaccinate all adults by July 19, I think that will make a very big difference and increase the total amount of immunity of the population.”