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Celebrating an anniversary could increase your risk of Covid-19 by a third, a new study suggests.
In U.S. counties with high rates of Covid-19, households that recently celebrated birthdays were 30% more likely to be diagnosed with coronavirus, compared to households without birthdays, according to Harvard Medical School study and the non-profit research organization RAND Corporation.
It’s not really surprising when you think about it. When meeting with close friends and family, it’s not uncommon for people to break social distancing rules with a hug here and a kiss there. Blowing out candles on a birthday cake is also not the most hygienic of activities.
Age also appears to matter – in households with children celebrating birthdays, the risk of catching Covid was even higher. The researchers speculated that this could be because households with children’s birthdays were less likely to cancel their plans during the pandemic, or that social distancing could have been followed less strictly.
For the study, published in the journal JAMA Internal Medicine, researchers analyzed a national sample of nearly 3 million U.S. households with data provided by insurance company Castlight Health.
In the first 45 weeks of 2020, researchers found that in counties with high transmission of Covid-19, households with recent birthdays had an average of 8.6 more cases per 10,000 individuals than households in the same counties. without birthday.
In households where a child had a birthday, the impact was even greater, with an increase in Covid-19 cases of 15.8 per 10,000 people in the two weeks following the birthday compared to cases in families without. In households with an adult birthday, the increase was an additional 5.8 cases per 10,000.
Interestingly, they didn’t count real birthdays in their analysis. Instead, they used the birth dates of household members as an indicator of social gatherings and in-person festivities.
Nonetheless, they said the findings indicate that social gatherings, such as birthday parties, may have contributed to infections during the height of the pandemic.
“We were only able to examine one type of event that likely leads to social gatherings, but given the magnitude of the increased risk associated with an anniversary in the household, it is clear that informal gatherings of all kinds played an important role in the spread of Covid-19, ”said study co-author Christopher Whaley, of the RAND Corporation.
Co-author Anupam Jena, associate professor of health care policy at Harvard Medical School, added, “These gatherings are an important part of the social fabric that unites families and society as a whole. However, as we show, in high risk areas they can also expose households to Covid-19 infections. “
The results contain important clues for public health officials and individuals if more waves of Covid were to occur. “Our findings could help inform future action,” Jena said. “They stress the importance of understanding the types of activities that can worsen the viral spread during a pandemic and can inform political and individual decisions based on risk. The results also quantify the potential risk of reuniting with people we know. “
Commenting on the results, Professor Christl Donnelly, an expert in statistical epidemiology at Imperial College London, told HuffPost UK: “What makes this analysis smart is that rather than having to ask people about their social contacts, researchers looked for an association between someone’s birthday in the household and the resulting increased risks of Covid-19.
“What they found was increased risks over the next two weeks, with greater effects when the birthday was a child’s birthday. This may well reflect the birthdays of children being more likely to have birthdays. being celebrated with a party and / or the size of the party being larger She added that “there is nothing about a birthday party that makes it riskier than other meetings of the same size.”
Those who want to stay safe and reduce their risk at gatherings, including birthday parties, can use the same measures that protect you elsewhere, says Professor Donnelly. “If possible, stay outside, wear masks (when you’re not eating cake) and limit the number of people,” she says.
“Finally, I would suggest that if candles are to be blown out, they are limited to the birthday girl or boy’s cake – not the whole cake to be served to everyone. “
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