Would the Philippines storm the tiger economy?

WHAT energy sources will be offered to companies this year? There is a gathering of international and local forces that make this a real tiger year. There is a great Energy Year in tradition, but there are also risks for those who cannot ride in the power of the king of beasts.

While many companies have closed and others are waiting and watching, these situations open up the market to new entrants and those who are still ready to hit the market. The growth and decline of companies has been much faster in recent years. The health risks of a pandemic are diminishing. Are you waiting

Real entrepreneurs, Chinoys and others, in trying to achieve a favorable trend, do not expect ideal conditions. They accept a game where they have to adapt to all environments and risks: pandemic, election, disruption. Today’s trend is clearly on the rise, albeit possibly stormy. Why?

Great sources of growth

The three major sources of growth are converging strongly and are beginning to unite more than ever before.

One is logistical connectivity – between the Philippines, internally and internationally, and the fastest growing region in the world, Asia, which itself is rapidly connecting.

ASEAN is now the second largest trading bloc with China at about $ 800 billion a year and growing rapidly. The 1,000-kilometer Laos-China rail link is complete. Thailand is already exporting rice and fruit to China faster, in fresher, larger quantities. The Thai have ordered the addition of the Nong Khai Bridge to Laos to improve this interconnection and have begun building a railway with China. Despite the controversy, Vietnam’s first metro line has been completed with the help of China. China is building rails connecting Indonesia, including inventing Indonesia itself with the decision to move its capital to Borneo.

(From left) Indonesian President Joko Widodo, President Rodrigo Duterte, Transport Minister Arthur Tugade and former Public Works Secretary Mark Villar.

The Philippines is already part of this dynamic trading zone, which will grow even faster unless sinophobia spreads to politicians and those who have not studied beyond the material of the black and white mainstream media.

Even during the pandemic, Philippine exports to China rose 15 percent to $ 18 billion, 30 percent of total Philippine exports. Direct investment will continue to grow as Congress and the Senate modernize the Public Services Act and plan to remove a number of restrictions on foreign investment, which will certainly bring more dynamism to the country, upgrade our technology and diversify our sources and markets for goods, finance and services.

We connect to this Asian intercontinental trading area all the way to Europe through the Belt and Road initiative – physically, digitally. How well do we take advantage of this?

Presidents Fidel Ramos, Gloria Macapagal Arroyo and Benigno Aquino 3 put us back on the map of the trade zone. President Rodrigo Duterte showed that the construction of hardware infrastructure can be accelerated.

The Manila subway has started, as has the train to New Clark City in partnership with Japan. Two beautiful new bridges in Manila (China donated), Skyway, Cebu Cordova Link and airports have already been built. Transport Minister Arthur Tugade has just unveiled 150 billion PNRs in cooperation with China Bicol Express, which connects the city of Calamba to the Bicol area and reduces travel time to four hours from 12 and benefits 14 million Filipinos annually. The PNR Express will be part of a line connecting Manila to Batanga and Sorsogon into a 565-kilometer line that will carry both people and cargo. The new highways now connect Cavite to Nuval, the city of Lipa, Stoon. Tomas, Quezon, everywhere everywhere. The MRT-7 shortens trips from parts of the city to Bulacan from 3 hours to 40 minutes. The LRT expansion will reduce travel time between Baclaran and Bacoor, Cavite, from 25 minutes to 10 minutes. Airports in Sangley and Bulacan as well as ports will be opened all over the country.

The legal and administrative highways of the regional comprehensive economic partnership trade agreements connecting ASEAN to the world’s largest markets have been opened.

The second is digital access. This is already increasing training and business in previously unreachable areas of the world. The large bank-free population in Asia is now beginning to receive savings, loans and investment services, and their incomes are growing. E-commerce is direct between producers, SMEs and the market. The costs of information, training and advertising, as well as logistics, have fallen to a fraction. Cross-border markets are wiping out borders.

Third, demographic data is to our advantage; we have a growing population in the philippines and india. In Asia, income levels are rising, creating large and close markets. Even the aging population of our neighbors China, Japan, Hong Kong, etc. is an opportunity for us if we study and respond to market needs.

All three of these factors create exponential, networked market and supply growth, connecting us domestically and globally. Market opening is unsurpassed in world history. Great prosperity is created, and those countries and people that do not adapt will be left behind.

Are we even learning languages, developing products and services for sale, or are we just looking at telenovelos, sending cute pictures, arguing about politics?

Possible negative factors

What are the possible negative factors for the company at the moment?

Interest rates will rise, and if too much, they could further weaken newly recovering companies and markets.

Rising inflation is displacing people’s purchasing power, and the potential cost of producing products and services can make us uncompetitive. Partly as a result of countries weighing too much money without producing more goods.

War. The crisis in Ukraine between the two nuclear superpowers, the United States and Russia, could lead to an oil spill of $ 100-120 per Goldman Sachs, and supply chain disruptions and embargoes are causing a shortage. A military conflict, if Taiwan is still encouraged to secede, would be more of an economic problem for the Philippines, which could become a target if war breaks out if we allow ourselves to be an arms stand or depot.

A tiger or a kitten?

All success and achievement comes from the ability to realize without which dreams are lazy people. (Unless someone is inherently disabled). The power of Europe and America grew exponentially as the rails were connected on their continents, then as telephones allowed communication. We have answers today.

Every factor that makes the Philippines become a tiger economy is now here. Yes, there are obstacles too, but every successful person and country has overcome them and can overcome them, and does so with even greater obstacles. We should stop whining, eavesdropping or wasting time.

Achieving dreams is not due to a lack of risks and problems, but to the ability to win and pay the price. The pandemic is in recession, the potential growth hinted at last November showed leading areas and potential strength for recovery.

The year of the tiger is the year of the striped tigers, not the year of the puppies. Would it be time for the Philippines to come out roaring?

George Siy is a trained international trader and negotiator at Wharton, a corporate executive and executive director of the Anvil Business Club. He has advised several Philippine government agencies and organizations in trade negotiations with ASEAN, Japan and the United States.

IDSI’s New Worlds (Integrated Development Studies Institute) seeks to present a framework based on a balance between economic theory and historical reality, success in real business and communities, and the pursuit of a common good, culture, and spirituality ([email protected])