‘We are liberators’: Democrats fear turnout disaster for GOP voting laws

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Democrats in other states that have passed similarly restrictive voting laws have come to the same conclusion. Interviews with more than 36 Democratic elected officials, party activists, and voting rights activists across the country reveal growing concern — close to anxiety — about the potential impact in 2022 of new bills passed by Republican legislatures, particularly in some of the nation. The most competitive nations on the battlefield.

“I am very concerned,” said Max Wood, founder and CEO of Deck, a progressive data analytics company that analyzes voting behavior. “I try to be an optimist, and I think there are times when that kind of thing can spur enthusiasm and appetite. … But I don’t know that will be enough, especially with how strict some of these laws are.”

Democratic efforts to model midterm turnout under the new laws are still in their infancy. But even without a sophisticated understanding of the practical impact, there is a widespread fear that the party is not doing enough to counter these efforts, or prepare for elections that are, in some cases, held according to an entirely different set of rules that govern voter access.

“If there is no way for us to repeat what happened in November 2020, we are liberated,” said Nancy Yovut, CEO of the New Georgia Project founded by Stacey Abrams. “We do what we do to make sure that it’s not just our constituents, our base, the people, the communities that we organize with them. We’re trying to make sure that our elected officials get that too.”

Since January 1, at least 18 states have passed laws restricting access to voting, according to the Brennan Center’s Voting Laws Tracker, which range from voter identification requirements to provisions that make early and absentee voting more difficult.

Protesters stand outside the state capitol against House Bill 531 on March 8, 2021 in Atlanta, Georgia, that would restrict early voting hours, remove drop-down boxes and require the use of a government ID when voting by mail. | Megan Varner / Getty Images

In Michigan, voting rights activists are fighting pressure from Republicans to require voters who cast ballots without a photo ID to take additional steps to verify their identity within six days of voting. In 2020, about 11,400 voters cast ballots without a photo ID — a tiny percentage of voters, but roughly the margin by which Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in the state in 2016.

“If you get all these people to vote by provisional ballot and force them back to their clerk’s office, some people won’t take that extra step,” said Nancy Wang, executive director of Voters Not Politicians, Michigan. Voting initiative that shifted its focus from redistricting to voting rights

Wang said Republicans are “trying to drive out Democratic-leaning voters wherever they can. … It’s kind of a 1,000-punch death.”

Georgia Democrats are rushing to develop a strategy to get around their state’s voting law, which Republican Governor Brian Kemp signed in March, in the wake of the Democrats’ unexpected victories. It has been widely seen as a blueprint for similar measures in other countries.

The state Democratic Party aims to stand up to the law by building on a voter education program established after the 2018 midterm elections. They train county chiefs, volunteers, and voters in the terms of the law in Zoom and in-person sessions. The goal, according to a party official, is to train volunteers on how to obtain voter ID in all of Georgia’s 159 counties. The party also hired three new deputy political directors to reach out to black, Latino, and Asian Americans.

November’s mayoral elections in Atlanta are a test of the law and how its requirements will affect voters. While Democrats aim to apply the lessons learned from this election to next year’s midterm elections, they recognize that the safe, black, Democratic city is far from a statewide race.

“Certainly, the city of Atlanta is very different from other parts of Georgia,” said Saira Draper, director of voter protection for the Georgia Democratic Party, noting that Fulton County is Georgia’s most populous city. “The fact that they are going to have this opportunity to go through this process, that is a good thing. And the problems they have, if they have problems, it might be a way for us to steer other provinces away from those problems.”

What is lacking, however, is a comprehensive tactical plan to address the restrictions in the states where they will most harm the Democrats’ chances. The party and its interest groups are preparing to spend millions of dollars litigating restrictive voting laws and boosting turnouts, but Democrats are largely divided in their response. One reason: widespread hopes and expectations that Washington or the courts will provide some remedy.

“I don’t think the Democratic Party as a whole is prioritizing this issue and its potential harm the way they should,” said Doug Herman, who was the lead mail strategist for Barack Obama’s 2008 and 2012 campaigns. We just went through a disobedience fueled by lies and fraud, and the reaction to that from the Republican Party is to restrict the voting process so severely that only voters can participate. And I don’t understand the lack of fierce resistance to it on the part of Americans and Democrats.”

The restrictions imposed by Republicans affect so many aspects of the vote that Democrats cannot agree on the most problematic provisions. Some Democrats cite signature matching laws. Others suggest fewer drop-down boxes or shorter time frames for early voting. There is still more thought for voter identification requirements in particular.

A voter presents a ballot in an official drop box during early voting in Athens, Georgia, on October 19, 2020. | John Bazimore / AP Photo

“The most ridiculous thing we had to sue” was a Michigan law that prevents hiring people to take voters to the polls, said Anissa Macmillan, deputy executive director of Priorities USA, who runs the group’s voting rights program.

However, it is difficult to anticipate the impact of various laws on turnout in 2022 because the rules are so new – and because the last elections were held under pandemic conditions that are unlikely to be severe in 2022. Moreover, even if Democrats could get their voters into the polls Voting, stricter identity requirements and other restrictions in some states can make it easy to not allow their votes.

Jaime Harrison, the chair of the Democratic National Committee, said that in addition to parts of the laws that appear designed to limit turnout, “the most heinous thing that happens is what happens once people get past all the hurdles they’ve put in, what happens to their vote once it’s cast?”

Citing a provision of law in Georgia that gives Republican lawmakers more power to interfere in local election processes, he said, “This isn’t America, it’s Russia. I mean, these are some of the direct dictator type things.”

This month Vice President Kamala Harris announced a $25 million expansion of the DNC’s “I Will Vote” campaign to boost voter registration, turnout, and election protection programs. Harrison said that in 2022 the DNC will have its largest voter protection program ever, doubling the size of its staff, including inclusions in the states.

“Over the past three decades, we’ve seen the Republican Party, especially at the state level, put enormous barriers to the freedom to vote for every citizen, and part of the problem is that there is one party that believes every American citizen deserves freedom,” said Donna Brazile, a former Democratic National Council chairwoman.

Some elected officials at the state level are anticipating a potential negative impact on Republicans, saying that once Georgia Democrats understand the new rules in place, they will be more motivated to get out.

“It may motivate more voters to get involved and do what needs to be done, to ensure that they get to vote,” said Representative Sam Park, whose county includes Atlanta’s densely populated Gwinnett County, which is the most diverse in the state. “When you see politicians coming in after you’re able to cast your vote, it’s a reminder of how powerful you really are, and how powerful the vote really is.”

Harris met with a group of voting rights activists at the White House in mid-July to discuss protecting access to ballots, particularly among black voters. Veteran civil rights leaders also attracted the president’s ear on the issue, suggesting a number of disruptive solutions to pass the John Lewis Voting Rights Act or the People’s Act.

This month Vice President Kamala Harris announced a $25 million expansion of the DNC’s “I Will Vote” campaign to boost voter registration, turnout, and election protection programs. | Evan Vucci / AP photo

But even the White House’s growing interest is not enough to erase the pessimism among many on the left.

“I am absolutely convinced that it will hurt Democrats significantly in the long run,” said Brian Fallon, co-founder and CEO of Demand Justice, which supports Supreme Court reform. “There’s certainly no set of lawsuits or a Biden who has remained unpopular or voter registration going to overcome that, so I think it’s pretty dismal.”

Congressional Democrats have yet to reintroduce the John Lewis Voting Rights Act, which would bring back a requirement that some jurisdictions obtain approval from the Department of Justice or the D.C. District Court before making changes to voting laws.

Senate Democrats used field hearings for the first time in two decades in Atlanta to draw attention to voting rights and say they plan to continue holding field hearings elsewhere as state lawmakers contemplate or pass legislation restricting access to voting.

However, they did not provide a clear strategy for how Democrats would counter the Georgia law and nearly two dozen newly passed laws like it.

“Hope quickly turns into frustration,” said Latosha Brown, co-founder of the Georgia-based voting rights group Black Voters Matter. Constantly, we appear to protect democracy. When in hell will those who claim to be committed to democracy appear to protect those who protect democracy? ”

Brown and Offut pointed to Texas, where House Democrats vacated the state in protest of its voting bill, as an example of the heights they’d like to see other Democrats go to in fending off disciplinary voting actions in other battlefield states.

“Texas Democrats were out of action, and the only thing they could do to deny a quorum was to take their families and leave the state in the middle of the night,” Yvutt said. “That’s the kind of response and leadership this moment requires, and I’m waiting for the administration to match the energy of the state and the local Democrats across the country fighting these battles.”

Marianne Levine contributed to this report.

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