Covid cases are on the decline as daily infections are only a third of the bleak forecast of 100,000 despite easing restrictions

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COVID cases are on the decline as daily infections average 30,000 – just a third of the grim forecast that 100,000 people a day will contract the virus as the lockdown is lifted.

Experts are now hopeful the UK will never again be put into lockdown despite health chiefs warning that the bug could quickly spiral out of control after Freedom Day.

Covid appears to be on the decline in the UK, jubilant new numbers indicate

The good news comes just weeks after Health Minister Sajid Javid warned of a spike in cases over the summer.

But despite this, Britain passed a grim milestone yesterday, as six million have tested positive since the pandemic began.

Sources told The Times that the prime minister was “in disbelief” when he saw data showing cases had stabilized after restrictions were eased last month.

Scientific advisers to the government have warned that ending rules on mask-wearing and social distancing would lead to a significant spike in both cases and hospitalizations.

However, this has not happened yet.

Sage models for this point in time predict more than 6,000 people hospitalized at the lower end, and more than 25,000 as a worst-case scenario.

Currently, 5,631 patients are admitted to the wards.

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Boris Johnson is now said to be “the most pessimistic person in the room” while talking about case numbers and is “scarred” for having to cancel the holiday season for millions.

“Christmas is still haunting him,” a source said.

However, it is impossible to ignore the data. Days after replacing Matt Hancock, Javid said officials expect 100,000 cases per day by the end of the summer. Yesterday, 31,808 positive tests were recorded, and daily cases are hovering around that number.

The government has been waiting for significant figures from the Office for National Statistics on infections. Those arrived this week – and they showed a clear drop in injuries.

It is said that scientists are increasingly convinced that the initial increase in numbers was due to crowds gathering to watch the euro.

The rapid drop after the tournament has been compared to the drop considered when closings are applied.

“There is no lock in the fall”

Experts also believe the pandemic – which has caused misery to businesses across the country – may have encouraged Britons to be more careful about social contact.

Many decided to stay in the UK for their summer vacation after a headache due to the traffic light system.

Sage data also shows daily contacts are at a quarter of pre-pandemic levels, and even lower than last summer, when ministers encouraged a return to normalcy with Eat Out to Help Out and strive to get people back into offices.

“The vast majority of the country wants to go slow,” one minister told the newspaper, adding: “The vast majority of people are still risk averse.

“They are still wearing face masks and social distancing.”

The UK’s post-pandemic lifestyle approach

Sage’s advisor, Professor John Edmonds, said he did not expect the September shutdown – and credited the “amazing” vaccines for the turnaround.

Autumn “will be fine”, said Sir John Bell, a professor of medicine at Oxford University, adding: “We are past the need for lockdown due to a vaccine.”

One minister said Britain was getting closer to post-pandemic life.

“We’re almost living with it now, and back to business as usual,” they said.

Others said there was concern about the good news being announced – because it “was like last summer weirdly”, after which infections escalated, reaching a peak in January.

Number 10 fears relying too much on good news before schools return in September, understandably so, and most scientists expect a spike in the next month.

Someone said there’s still a lot we don’t know about Covid – and there were no models last summer that showed the disease regressing during August.

They said, “It just shows you that we don’t have proof of what we’re doing.”

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The UK celebrated ‘Freedom Day’ last month – and new data suggests ending restrictions has not led to a prolonged rise in cases Credit: CLICK NEWS AND MEDIA

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Some scientists say many Britons remain vigilant, while millions of us have been put off holidaying abroad after travel chaos Credit: Splash-Covid vaccine will be required to travel ‘more than ever’ and people will not be allowed to leave without it, Shapps says

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