South China Sea on brink as clash over Taiwan could lead to ‘open war’ | world | News

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Taiwan lies to the north of the disputed ocean rich in resources and is viewed by Beijing as a breakaway province that will one day be reunited with the Chinese mainland. Beijing also claims sovereignty over the entire South China Sea, although Taiwan and neighboring countries have counterclaims. In recent months, the self-governing island nation, which has its own democratically elected government, has said record numbers of Chinese military aircraft have flown into its air defense identification zone.

Taiwan’s military was recently beefed up after US President Joe Biden approved a $750m (£541m) arms deal for the country – his administration’s first support for an arms deal for Taipei since taking office.

The US move infuriated Beijing, with the Chinese embassy saying it “undermines China’s sovereignty and security interests by selling arms to the Taiwan region.”

According to Dr. Jonathan Sullivan, a China specialist and political scientist at the University of Nottingham, any Sino-US dispute over Taiwan “would lead to significant and prolonged disruption on a global scale”.

He told Express.co.uk: “It will reshape international relations, lead to an ugly occupation of Taiwan and make China a pariah state.

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Xi Jinping: The Chinese president with US Joe Biden (Image: GETTY)

Taiwan: The country’s army conducts exercises (Image: GETTY)

“Depending on the circumstances that led to a hypothetical invasion, it will likely lead to a military conflict involving the two superpowers of the world.

“The inherent risk that a clash over Taiwan could lead to an open war between the United States and China is always present, and so this question is always of interest.”

The latest US arms deal to Taiwan is set to include 40 self-propelled howitzers, as well as 1,700 kits for developing GPS-equipped missiles.

By agreeing to the sale, Biden continued decades of US military and political support for Taiwan.

Biden: Continue US support for Taiwan (Image: GETTY)

His predecessor, Donald Trump, also approved a $1.8 billion (£1.3 billion) arms deal to the island nation in October last year.

The United States also pursued its military aid with a war of words, claiming “navy rules and principles [are] under threat” in the South China Sea.

US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken on Monday issued an indirect warning to China during a discussion titled “Strengthening Maritime Security: An Case for International Cooperation” chaired by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

He said, “In the South China Sea, we have witnessed serious confrontations between ships at sea and provocative actions to make illegal maritime claims.

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Battleship: China’s aircraft carrier Liaoning (Image: GETTY)

“The United States has made clear its concerns about measures that intimidate and bully other nations from lawfully gaining access to their marine resources.”

Dr. Sullivan explained that Beijing’s goal is to reunite Taiwan with the rest of China and that it is using a military show of force to demonstrate its ability to take over the island nation.

But he stressed that despite the war of words between Washington and Beijing, actual conflict is not imminent.

He said, “The communist regime has obviously invested heavily in ‘reclaiming’ Taiwan, but it also recognizes the above-mentioned risks and is therefore unlikely to conquer it unless it feels there is no other option to prevent ‘Taiwan independence’.”

China: the country’s military might (Image: EXPRESS)

“In recent years, it has stepped up pressure on Taiwan and aggressive rhetoric, and it is actively preparing itself through military modernization to be in a position to credibly take Taiwan.

The military balance has changed, but it has not yet reached a fatal blow, so we are not yet at a point where an invasion is remotely possible.

China has many other means it can use to increase Taiwan’s discomfort that falls short of conquest. Taiwan will not declare its independence as it is intended,” he said.

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