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Canada Updates
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Canadians will head to the polls on September 20 to vote in a snap election two years ahead of schedule, after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau asked the country’s governor-general to dissolve the legislature.
In a speech outside Rideau Hall, the official seat of government in Ottawa, Trudeau framed the election as a referendum on the government’s response to the pandemic, and an opportunity to “end the fight” with a sweeping mandate for change on climate, housing, welfare and the public. Healthcare.
“The decisions that your government makes now will determine the future in which your children and grandchildren will grow up,” he said. “We were there for you, and now it’s up to you to choose.”
Trudeau’s Liberal Party hopes to capitalize on a successful Covid-19 vaccination campaign to consolidate its grip on power after two years of minority rule. Opinion polls show the party is likely to win seats at the expense of the Conservatives and within walking distance of a majority. The Liberals hold 155 seats in Parliament, 15 seats shy of the 170 required for a majority.
Canada has administered nearly 51 million doses of vaccine and about 63 percent of the population is fully vaccinated, one of the highest rates in the world. It comes on the heels of stalled early vaccination efforts and supply problems from drug companies.
The 36-day campaign is the shortest duration allowed by Canadian law. Elections Canada, the federal regulator, said it was ready to process potentially millions of mail-in ballots.
Trudeau’s decision is a gamble, as the country is now going through a fourth wave of the pandemic. Canadians may penalize the party for what many consider an unnecessary election, seizing power at a time when they want to focus on recovery.
Canadians are just beginning to get their first respite from the pandemic. . . There is not much enthusiasm for an election at this very moment
“The reality is that Canadians are just getting their first respite from the pandemic,” said Nikita Nanos, chief data scientist and founder of polling firm Nanos Research.
“Now they are starting to think about what it means to go back to work? What does it mean for children to go back to school? As a result, there is not much enthusiasm for an election at this particular point in time.”
Opposition leaders had already condemned Trudeau as news of the impending vote rose over the past week. Jagmeet Singh, the leader of the Progressive Left New Democrats, the fourth largest party in parliament, called the decision to hold a vote amid the pandemic as “selfish”.
In a speech after the announcement, Conservative Party leader Erin O’Toole said only his party could be trusted to manage the recovery. He had earlier pledged to balance the budget within ten years, in a sign of how difficult it is to rein in public debt and spending.
O’Toole and Singh argued that the election would distract Canada from dealing with external crises, such as the disintegration of Afghanistan and the earthquake in Haiti, as well as strained relations with China over the arrest of Huawei CEO Meng Wanzhou in Vancouver.
Trudeau has indicated that the Liberals will crack down hard on their vaccine record. But they will also outline policies for affordable housing, strengthening public health care, expanding child care and support benefits, reconciliation with Indigenous communities, and climate change. The wildfires in British Columbia have refocused attention on environmental policies.
A Leger poll in early August showed that the Liberals had a seven-point lead over the Conservatives among voting voters, at 36 percent, but only 27 percent said Trudeau would be the best prime minister. This means that even liberal voters are ambivalent about giving their leader another mandate.
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The Liberals have overseen a minority government since the last election in October 2019, a vote marred by scandal after old photos of the black-faced prime minister surfaced. The Conservatives came in second, and the nationalist Bloc Quebec Quebec came in third. A national CBC News poll tracker shows Liberal support at 35.6 percent, with a 51 percent chance of winning a majority, and that county elections held since the start of the pandemic have favored incumbents.
Polls show Canadians overwhelmingly backed government spending on unemployment support, economic stimulus and vaccines during the pandemic. But as the recovery begins and inflation rises, concerns are likely to shift toward reining in spending.
“Conservatives say we’ve supported emergency spending, but the emergency is over, the economy is improving, so now let’s get back to normal,” said Daniel Byland, director of the McGill Institute for Canadian Studies. “But the liberals say no, we need to make lasting changes.”
“So these are very different accounts of the country’s future,” he added.
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