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In the end, the only surprise was that anyone was very surprised. I wrote in April, when President Biden announced his fateful withdrawal from Afghanistan that “we will define the shape of a continuing US diplomatic presence,” that it would sound like an evacuation. Today, this panic-stricken evacuation is underway. The complete collapse of the Afghan army, once not supported, was always a grave danger that should have been foreseen. History is replete with examples of large military forces that surrendered if they felt isolated or underled. Consider the mass surrender of Italian forces in North Africa in the winter of 1940 to a British army that outnumbered them by at least four.
At the end of the week, Biden argued that the Afghan collapse justified his decision –
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