Covid horror like vaccine protection could be over by Christmas – double the knockout | science | News

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According to Professor Tim Spector, chief scientist in the ZOE COVID study, the vaccine’s efficacy for older adults and health care workers — those who are within the first wave of vaccinations — could drop below 50 percent by Christmas. Although his forecast is the worst-case scenario, he cautioned that the government should make plans to boost vaccines. Without vaccine boosters, high levels of infection combined with a highly contagious variant could lead to a spike in deaths and hospitalizations.

Professor Spector added: “While the vaccines work well against the delta variant for the first few months and reduce severe disease, given the more than 1 million registered ZOE vaccinated, the efficacy appears to be waning, which may explain the recent prevalence of infection in fully vaccinated people. .

“In my opinion, a plausible worst-case scenario could see less than 50 percent protection for seniors and health care workers by winter.

“If high levels of infection in the UK, driven by relaxed social restrictions and a highly transmissible variable, this scenario could mean an increase in hospitalizations and deaths.

“We urgently need to develop plans to boost vaccines and, based on vaccine resources, decide whether a strategy to vaccinate children is reasonable if our goal is to reduce deaths and hospital admissions.

“A decline in protection is to be expected, not a reason not to receive a vaccination.

“Vaccines still provide high levels of protection for the majority of the population, especially against the delta variant, so we still need as many people as possible to get fully vaccinated.”

Professor Spector’s predictions were based on findings from the study’s analysis of the vaccine’s effectiveness in the first wave of those who received the vaccine.

According to the analysis, the protection of the Pfizer vaccine against infection a month after the second dose was 88 percent.

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The vaccine was introduced to the most vulnerable groups and the elderly at the beginning of the year.

By quickly rolling out the vaccine to an initial one-dose policy, the UK was able to reduce infections that rose during January due to the alpha variant.

However, with the drug’s efficacy now waning, it is not certain whether the government will go ahead with a plan to roll out booster vaccines across the country in the fall and winter.

Speaking today, Professor Adam Finn of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunization (JCVI) said a booster injection could be vital in the following months.

“I think the Zoe study, and a couple of other studies that we’ve been doing recently, show the beginnings of reduced protection from asymptomatic or mild disease,” he told Today.

But other studies show good protection against serious illness and hospitalization is maintained.

“It’s actually encouraging that people who took two doses are still very well protected from serious disease, which is our main goal.

“But we need to be very careful to see if this waning starts to translate into more serious cases because then the boosters will be needed.”

JCVI is expected to make an announcement of the booster cakes this month.

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