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Scientists are on alert for a possible eruption of the Kilauea volcano inside Hawaii Volcanoes National Park following a wave of earthquakes around the volcano’s summit.
The US Geological Survey’s Hawaii Volcano Observatory issued a warning Tuesday that there is an increased potential for eruption after a swarm of mostly small earthquakes that began late Monday afternoon and was followed by a “particularly strong sequence” of quakes at around 1:30 Tuesday morning. It turned into a total of over 250 earthquakes by midday.
Most earthquakes were of magnitude 1 or less, with the largest being 3.3 on the Richter scale. HVO said all the vibrations coincided with a change in the Earth’s deformation pattern at the clinometers in the Kilauea Summit region that could indicate a magma seep 0.6 to 1.2 miles below the southern part of the caldera.
This estimated depth of the dam’s suspected intrusion of magma is relatively shallow and is one reason why the Kilauea Volcanic Activity Alert has been raised to an “hour” from an “advisory” level, said Ingrid Johansson, a research geophysicist in HVO.
“We’re definitely watching for a volcanic eruption,” she said.
HVO raised the alert level at about 5:30 a.m. Tuesday.
The ‘clock’ level indicates that the volcano is exhibiting erupting or escalating turbulence with an increased probability of an eruption with an uncertain time frame. This level is also used when explosions are in progress while posing limited risks. The highest alert level is “Warning,” indicating that a dangerous volcanic eruption is either underway, imminent, or suspected.
All earthquake and ground deformation swarms are concentrated within the southern caldera of Kilauea, which is closed to the public and poses no lava flow hazard to the public.
Kilauea’s alert level was last in “an hour” during its last eruption, from December 20 to May 26, when magma flowed from a few vents to form a lava lake within the Halemaumau Crater.
HVO suggested on May 27 that a summit eruption might be ready for “luana iki,” or a bit of respite, given that statistical opportunities have shown that most eruptions resume within three months after a pause.
It’s likely a coincidence, Johansson said, that all of Kilauea’s new roar is happening right around the edge of the three-month period since the last eruption ended.
There is evidence that magma sources below the summit area are connected to each other or influence each other, and Johansson said the area of activity now resembles a magma breakout at the summit in 2015 and could be linked to the sources of the last eruption that ended. in May.
A more distant and damaging volcanic eruption occurred at Kilauea in 2018 in the lower eastern rift volcano region. This event involved draining magma from the summit area and penetrating the surface approximately 25 miles into Puna through several fissures mainly in the Leilani Estates country subdivision.
Over the course of 107 days, nearly a billion cubic yards of lava covered hundreds of acres of land, destroying about 720 homes and causing more than $800 million in damage.
HVO scientists are paying close attention 24 hours a day to Kilauea, and will issue more warnings if a change of activity is required.
For updates and information
Including the magnitude and location of earthquakes:
>> Visit usgs.gov/volcanoes/kilauea
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