Scientists have warned that a “catastrophic” giant volcano eruption is much more likely than previously thought

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A new study has found that a catastrophic supervolcano eruption – which would lead to global deaths – is much more likely than previously thought.

The research says about 20 of these volcanoes, which scientists thought were semi-dormant, may still pose an existing hazard.

Until now, it was widely believed that the probability of an eruption depends on the presence of liquid magma under the volcano.

But the new research – coordinated by Oregon State University in the US with scientists from around the world – found evidence that “volcanic eruptions can occur even if no liquid magma is found”.

If true, this means that many supervolcanoes that were previously thought to carry only a potential future hazard could remain extremely dangerous for the time being to humanity.

“The concept of what is ‘explosive’ needs to be re-evaluated,” said Associate Professor Martin Danisek of Curtin University in Australia, one of the lead authors of the research published this week in Communications Earth and Environment.

The team came to the conclusion after investigating what happened after the super eruption of Lake Toba some 75,000 years ago in what is today Indonesia.

The event itself is said to have caused a global winter that lasted many years, reducing the population at that time to at least 3,000 people.

But it’s the fact that the magma appears to have continued to ooze for up to 13,000 years afterward that has particularly intrigued scientists — as it may indicate that volcanic eruptions can occur without liquid magma in the first place.

Professor Danisek said: “Super eruptions are among the most catastrophic events in Earth’s history, spewing out huge amounts of magma almost instantaneously. They can affect the global climate to the point of turning Earth into a ‘volcanic winter’, an abnormally cold period that may lead to to widespread famine and population disruption.

“Learning how supervolcanoes work is important to understanding the future threat of an inevitable eruption.”

He added: “While a super eruption can have a regional and global impact and recovery may take decades or even centuries, our results show that the danger did not end with the super eruption and that the threat of further dangers has existed for thousands of years afterward.”

“Learning when and how eruptive magma accumulates, and in what state the magma formed before and after these eruptions, is critical to understanding supervolcanoes.”

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