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Boris Johnson will be confident of winning a surprise House of Commons vote on the NHS bailout and social care reform, which MPs claim is the biggest political gamble of his premiership.
In defiance of potential Tory rebels, the prime minister raised taxes to their highest level since World War Two and broke Tory pledges on taxes and pensions.
Before the debate and vote on what some senior Conservative Party calls the one-item budget, the threat of a devastating bench rebellion was waning and a large-scale rebellion on the verge of collapse.
PM promises to boost social welfare
The crucial vote, just 24 hours after Johnson unveiled a £12 billion tax increase, is in a proposal to give the government the power to levy a healthcare tax and change the national insurance rate.
The prime minister, writing in the Daily Mail, said he wanted to end the “harsh lottery” for those who would or would not face financial ruin to cover the costs of their care.
Johnson acknowledged that much of the money raised would not go, at least in the short term, towards social care reform, but would be used to relieve pressure on the NHS and clear the “backlog of missed operations and treatments”.
He said he has ruled out borrowing to pay for his proposed reforms and instead “concluded grudgingly that the only responsible course was to ask everyone to pay more.”
“Nobody in this conservative government wants to raise taxes,” he added. “But after the extraordinary efforts of the NHS – and the sacrifices made by countless people – we cannot evade the challenge.”
And while the prime minister has not ruled out further tax increases, most Conservative MPs support the post-COVID emergency cash injection to tackle the massive NHS backlog and accept that welfare funding reform is long overdue.
Many MPs also see the surprise vote as a move to persuade would-be rebels to support the controversial proposals and claim that the threat of an imminent government reshuffle is being used by the Number 10 to pressure MPs and ministers to remain loyal.
The prime minister’s move to combine his own tax increases to pay for social care reforms with extra money to combat the COVID backlog in the NHS is seen as a landmark political blow to effectively eliminate the threat of a major rebellion.
Is the welfare plan fair or unfair?
In his defense of the tax increase, Chancellor Rishi Sunak wrote in The Times: “This is one of the most important decisions the government has made on a matter of public policy in my life; a decision that governments of all political colors have said they would make, but ultimately evaded.”
“But we can’t spend money we don’t have, and it will come at a cost. There will be those who will say we should borrow, and hopefully eventually everything will come out well. But no responsible government ever plans on this.”
“With the national debt reaching nearly 100 percent of GDP and our borrowing levels as a result of the pandemic, we have to make the hard decisions. So we made a difficult but responsible choice by raising taxes.
“And the only way to collect such large sums is from income tax, value-added tax, or National Insurance contributions (NICs). We believe this is the fairest and most advanced method.”
Budget in everything but the name
The House of Commons vote presents a dilemma for workers, who also backs more cash for the NHS but opposes a 1.25% increase in National Insurance. Sir Keir Starmer convened an emergency meeting of his shadow cabinet to decide how to respond.
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