Is Northern Ireland in a good place as a new Covid winter approaches? …what experts and politicians are saying

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Cases above 1,000 a day, death tolls rising and hospitals overrun – Northern Ireland’s never-ending battle against Covid-19 appears to be in a precarious position.

With restrictions still loosening – despite ongoing concerns about the virus – and things seemingly returning to a better sense of normalcy, where will we be at the end of January?

As we entered the crucial winter period last year, Northern Ireland was in a much better position in terms of numbers.

But the CEO still has no choice but to put the country on lockdown for four months from Boxing Day.

One of the bright lights ahead of this winter is, of course, the Covid vaccine with 88.76% of the adult population infected so far. But will it be enough?

According to the Department of Health, on October 1, 2020, the seven-day rolling average of positive cases in Northern Ireland was 528.

Fast forward to September 26 this year, and that number jumped to 1,097. That’s a worrying 49% increase.

At the beginning of last October, the seven-day rolling rate of people dying after contracting Covid was one. This number peaked at nine in September.

Health Trusts were treating 155 confirmed Covid-19 patients on October 1, 2020, and as of September 29, 342 people with the virus were admitted to our hospitals.

So where do we go from here and is there another harsh January on the horizon?

Public health expert and independent SAGE member Dr Gabriel Scully said Northern Ireland was in the “wrong place” ahead of the winter period.

He couldn’t say if another shutdown was likely but thought the CEO should focus on “PVC” – prevention, vaccination and control.

“The deciding factor, of course, will always be whether it will completely disrupt the health and emergency services,” he said. “There is a good chance that it could easily happen. When the trusts have to make general calls for employees to come in for extra shifts in the summer, imagine what it would be like if it lasted in the winter. In the back of all that there is a ticking in the death toll. How long does it last? By allowing death to occur after death from a preventable disease and not doing what you know can be done?”

Adding that the delta variant of the virus was a “game changer”, Dr Scully said the vaccination rollout had not been handled as it should have been as Northern Ireland has now lagged behind other European countries in introducing it.

“We can go into winter with confidence if we put in the effort in the required vaccination, and I don’t think that effort is being made,” he said. “This is not just a problem for Northern Ireland, I think it is a problem for England.

“The vaccination program is very good. It has protected a lot of people and saved a lot of lives, but it’s not as good as it should be because the vaccine does not provide 100% protection and we know there is a waning of immunity from vaccination.

“We do not fully vaccinate young people and they already make up a large proportion of the population.”

Looking forward to January, Dr. Scully added: “Things won’t get better until someone takes action to improve it. They won’t get better on their own.”

Queen’s University virologist Dr Conor Bamford said the focus this year is not too big on the numbers of people infected, and that’s because the vaccine “protects us from the worst”.

Despite the higher numbers compared to last year, Dr Bamford said Northern Ireland is still in a much better position than going last winter.

“Maybe we won’t be in as bad a place as we were last January,” he explained.

“Some models suggest there could be another small wave early next year but it’s not a given and there is still a lot of uncertainty.

“For example, we don’t know what the flu season will be like, but I will say in general that a lot of the models look worse than what actually happened, so maybe we underestimate some things.

“I think it’s going to be a lot better than it was last year, and if enough people get their boosters, more people get their first and second doses, and we go ahead with vaccinating kids, we’ll be better than where we are now.”

The Executive recently canceled social distancing measures in stores, theaters and some other indoor venues.

However, he has let the hospitality sector tear his hair after deciding to stay in bars and restaurants.

Hospitality Ulster CEO Colin Neal said the sector is going through a very difficult 18 months as it recovers from the pandemic and unless the CEO removes guidelines in bars and restaurants now, business owners will face significant struggle in the new year.

He explained that “restaurants trade about two-thirds of their production capacity under restrictions, so they are likely to break even, but they are not settling any debts or building any reserves.”

“Traditional non-food bars are running about a third of their capacity, so they’re actually running at a loss and it’s worse because they’re gaining more debt. In our world, we need to remove social distancing, we need to remove all seating and we need to be able to drink at the bar.

“If we can get to that place, I think then we can get a turnout at Christmas and try to get our share of the £100 voucher scheme.

“All of these things affect where we are next year.”

Mr Neal stressed that hospitality wanted to make sure it did its part in protecting the public from the virus, but said the CEO must work on a solution that protects health and jobs.

He added that bar and restaurant owners will not know the full amount of debt they face until the end of the fiscal year in March.

“This is only when you have to do your calculations and see if you are insolvent or not,” Neil said. “If your debts are greater than your assets, you are immediately insolvent and then disappear.”

DUP Representative and health spokesman Jim Shannon, who received his second dose of the vaccine in May, said he feels more confident ahead of January 2022 with the jab.

“It’s always worrying when you know the numbers are so high but the difference this year is the vaccine,” he said.

“The vaccine doesn’t give you immunity but it gives you a better chance of dealing with the virus. Same goes for the flu vaccine. It would give me a better chance of not getting the flu. It’s all about prevention.”

“I think the strategy that Robin Swann laid out is the right one.”

The university’s health spokesperson, Alan Chambers MLA, added that the next four months will be in the hands of the public.

He also indicated that a number of his friends from the high-risk group had received the vaccine, but they did not need hospital treatment.

“They tested negative and were back to work within a few weeks with only an understandable degree of fatigue,” Mr. Chambers said.

“Life will improve for all of us and we can influence the pace of that by following all medical advice.”

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