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Investigators did not rule out the conclusion that the alleged attack by Emad Al-Sweilem on the Liverpool Women’s Hospital had “no ideological or political motive” and was therefore not an act of terrorism.
Investigations by counter-terrorism police and security services are continuing, but as the investigation enters its third day, investigators have not yet indicated any specific ideology behind the Sunday morning blast.
It was feared that the bomber’s target was the memorial service and procession at Liverpool Cathedral, which was a 10- to 15-minute walk from where the taxi exploded outside the hospital.
But investigators from the Counter-Terrorism Police and MI5 are understood to be inclined to the idea that the maternity hospital itself was the intended target of Swealmeen, who is believed to have made the explosive device.
Police announced the terrorist attack on Monday morning “given all the circumstances”, and any decision to lower that assessment remains unlikely. But informed sources said on Tuesday that investigators “still possible” to find any ideological reason for the attack.
Earlier, the security minister, Damien Hinds, told Sky News that while counter-terrorism police were discovering “more by the hour” about Swealmeen, “it could be weeks” before the full picture of “how it happened and what was the motive” became clear. .
It is understood that Swealmeen, who had been in the UK for about seven years, was denied asylum in December 2020. When an earlier application was rejected, several years earlier, he was suffering from mental ill health and was split, according to a friend in the city, Malcolm Hitchcott. .
Investigators also do not believe that the explosive used on Sunday was TATP, an unstable compound that can be made from consumer products and which was used by a number of Islamic attackers, most notably in the 7 July 2005 attacks on the London transport system.
However, there remain fears of two attacks within a month, with Sunday’s incident coming shortly after Sir David Amis, a Conservative MP, was killed in surgery for his constituency in Essex.
One source familiar with the thinking of counterterrorism leaders said there is real concern that the two violent incidents may embolden those considering trying a new atrocity.
Such concerns helped underpin Monday’s decision to raise the terrorist threat level to a severe level, meaning a new attempt at atrocities is considered highly likely.
The source noted a similar effect in 2017, when the first attack on Parliament in March of that year was followed by another series in quick succession, three with a jihadi motive and one with a far-right motive.
A counter-terrorism source told the Guardian: “There have been two terrorist incidents in the past four weeks, and we’ve seen how it can encourage or encourage other extremists.”
The second part of the concern among senior counterterrorism officers is that any stimulus to violent extremists will come as more people go out in the run-up to Christmas, for the first time since the pandemic.
“We’re heading into our first Christmas proper since the start of the pandemic and our towns and cities are going to be incredibly busy, so the public’s cooperation in fighting the threat will be vital,” the counterterrorism source added.
Officers who specialize in countering violent extremism will urge the public to report their concerns about potential attack plots and say that of the 10,000 calls to a counterterrorism hotline each year, a fifth produces useful and potentially life-saving intelligence.
Police forces are conducting additional patrols, and preventive security arrangements – that is, making it difficult for terrorists to attack – are reviewed, including hospitals.
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