US intelligence sharing convinces allies of Russia’s threat to Ukraine

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European Union and NATO allies have swung past the Biden administration’s assessment that Russia might be ready to invade Ukraine, after unprecedented US intelligence sharing about Moscow’s military preparations.

Weeks of sustained US diplomatic outreach with European governments, backed by the sharing of intelligence usually reserved for their closest allies, helped convince some previously skeptical capitals, including Berlin, that the Kremlin might soon order its forces into Ukraine. This effort galvanized support for the need for strong sanctions threats to deter the Kremlin.

US President Joe Biden will warn Russian President Vladimir Putin against any invasion in a video summit planned for Tuesday, European defense and security officials told the Financial Times, with full support from NATO and the European Union to take retaliatory measures.

Russia may be planning to invade Ukraine “as early as 2022,” a Biden administration official said Friday, adding that half of the military units that would take part in such an attack had arrived near the Ukrainian border over the past month.

The US decision to share its intelligence widely among European countries and issue public warnings stems from Washington’s hope that by bolstering Western support for sanctions, it will assure Moscow of the costs of any aggression. Details of the threat of sanctions and other countermeasures are still being discussed.

Not many allies were convinced that dangerous things had happened

The Kremlin has consistently denied that it is planning to invade Ukraine and has blamed the growing tension on US and NATO support for Kiev.

Officials familiar with the documents told the Financial Times that US intelligence reports depicting Russian military deployments along the Ukrainian border, evidence of potential preparations for the attack and an analysis of the Kremlin’s perceived intentions, were shared bilaterally and collectively with NATO members and through EU diplomatic channels.

One official described the amount of material and details shared among other NATO allies as “extremely comprehensive.”

Four officials said the unusual level of intelligence sharing was prompted by the initial reluctance of some European allies to treat US claims that an invasion was being prepared as credible.

The disclosure of previously confidential details began in early November ahead of a meeting of NATO ministers last week, which was subsequently dominated by discussions on Ukraine. The intelligence helped shift the conversation from whether a warning was true to how best to deter it.

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“Not many allies were convinced that serious things were going on,” said a second official. “We were surprised by this [intelligence] A Gap – How and Why the United States Was Seeing Things We Didn’t See.

“If I had to compare audio clips from before and after this info [at the Nato meeting] In Riga, there was a big shift towards the American version of things,” added the official.

Biden said Friday that he is preparing a “comprehensive and meaningful set of initiatives” to deter any Russian aggression.

“We have been aware of Russia’s actions for a long time, and I expect that we will have a long discussion,” he said of the upcoming call with Putin.

The United States says Russia has made preparations to deploy 100 battalion tactical groups totaling an estimated 175,000 military personnel to various strategic locations along the Ukrainian border, backed by 100,000 reservists.

Russian armor for Crimea in 2014 © Bulent Doruk / Anadolu Agency / Getty

Russian forces invaded Georgia in 2008, and invaded and annexed Ukraine’s Crimea in 2014. Since then, the Kremlin has supported pro-Moscow separatists who fought a seven-year war against Ukrainian government forces in Donbas, a Ukrainian region bordering Russia.

In April, Russia quickly and without warning moved 100,000 soldiers from other parts of the country to the border region with Ukraine, along with tanks, planes, naval forces, field hospitals and electronic warfare equipment, alarming Kiev and Western countries. Some of these soldiers eventually returned to their bases.

Some EU countries and NATO members who have called for dialogue with Moscow rather than confrontation have cited de-escalation as evidence that Russia will not embark on a full-fledged invasion unless provoked. But US intelligence about recent troop deployments has shifted that analysis.

The US and EU “have the same coherent message… to show the price Putin will pay for any action against Ukraine,” said a third European official. Some European countries that weren’t reading Putin’s moves [in the same way that the US was] In terms of intentions, now.”

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