UK unemployment rate drops despite end-of-work scheme | UK unemployment and employment statistics

[ad_1]

The UK’s unemployment rate fell in October despite the holiday scheme ending, according to official figures, as companies continued to hire amid record numbers of job vacancies.

The Office for National Statistics said the unemployment rate fell to 4.2% in the three months to the end of October, accounting for about 1.4 million people, down from 4.3% in the three months to the end of September.

Reflecting an ongoing recovery in the labor market after the Treasury’s multi-billion-pound job support plan expired in September, it said the number of workers on the company’s payroll rose 257,000 in November from the previous month — the largest monthly rise in payroll employment in Records dating back to 2014.

Driven by growth in part-time work since the easing of lockdown measures earlier this year, the increase has taken the number of workers on the company’s payroll to about 29.4 million – nearly half a million above pre-Covid levels.

The Office for National Statistics said it’s possible some registered workers will move into unemployment because they may be working on their notice periods, but early responses to its business surveys suggest the numbers being redundant are likely to be small.

Darren Morgan, director of economic statistics at the Office for National Statistics, said: “With still no sign of an end to the furlough scheme that has hit the number of jobs, total registered salary employees continued to grow strongly in November, although it may include individuals recently overpaid. needed but still operating according to their notice.”

It comes as the Bank of England considers whether or not to raise interest rates on Thursday for the first time since the outbreak of the pandemic.

Threadneedle Street’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unexpectedly backed down on action last month, preferring to wait and see if the end of the holiday scheme had a significant impact on the labor market.

However, analysts believe that the emergence of the coronavirus variant Omicron will force the bank to delay the action this month amid growing concerns about a deteriorating economic outlook.

Soren Theroux, head of economics at the British Chambers of Commerce, said: “While current labor market trends do not provide an impediment to rate hikes, uncertainty about the economic impact of the Omicron variable means that a December rate hike is unlikely. Interest is on the rise from February 2022, but only if concerns about the new alternative subside.”

According to the latest snapshot, the number of job vacancies continued to rise to a new record high of 1.2 million despite some early signs of a slowdown in the growth rate.

The Office for National Statistics said annual wage growth, excluding bonuses, eased slightly to 4.9% in the three months to October, down from 5% in the three months through September, as distortions in wage data caused by the pandemic gradually fade.

Despite stabilizing at a marginally higher rate than the pre-pandemic trend, October’s one-month growth figures suggest the growth rate has fallen to 3.8% – lower than the inflation rate for the first time since June 2020.

The Office for National Statistics cautions against overweighting one-month figures, preferring to use a three-month rolling average. However, the decline could signal the beginning of pressure on living standards from rising inflation outstripping wage growth, in a development expected to continue into 2022.

With the unemployment rate down to 4.2%, the unemployment rate remains 0.2 percentage points higher than it was in February 2020 before the outbreak of the pandemic.

Subscribe to the daily Business Today mail or follow Guardian Business on Twitter at BusinessDesk

Although the labor market remained strong last month, economists warned that tighter government restrictions and a sharp rise in consumer caution in response to Omicron could hurt job recovery.

Business and trade union leaders have warned that the government will need to step in with emergency financial support for businesses and their workers, warning that job prospects are rapidly deteriorating.

Frances O’Grady, TUC’s Secretary General, said restarting the furlough is needed along with additional support for the hardest-hit sectors of the economy. “It’s good to see jobs recovering – but the situation has changed since these numbers… We need a Plan B to protect jobs and livelihoods now,” she said.

[ad_2]