Experts have drawn up models for stricter restrictions in the field of the Corona virus, effective until March 28

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The novel coronavirus restrictions may be in effect until late March under procedures that government scientific advisors have vetted.

Modeling developed by experts from the University of Warwick looked at a range of measures including a ban on social contact with another family indoors and a return to the rule of six outdoor venues, in line with Step 2 restrictions in place in April in England.

“Rapidly activated Step 2 measures reduce peak hospital pressure to about half its level under Plan B only,” said a consensus paper published on Christmas Eve by the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modeling, Operational Subgroup (Spi-MO).

Warwick’s research considered imposing Step 2 restrictions on either December 28 or New Year’s Day and keeping them in place until January 15, January 28 or March 28.

It also included a model examining the effect of a “non-compulsive behavior change” if mixing was reduced by half the amount that Step 2 would achieve.

The Spi-MO summary of Warwick’s modeling said: “A reduction in mixing equivalent to half that in Step 2 results in a very small reduction in severe outcomes compared to Plan B alone.

“Step 2 has a much greater impact, reducing the number of deaths through May 31 by 39% (24-54%) if kept from December 28 through March 28, and 18% (12-27%) if kept in place. until January 15th”

Ministers have not yet seen the Warwick model and are expected to make a decision as early as next week, possibly as soon as Monday, on whether additional restrictions are needed.

(PA graphics)

(PA graphics)

The work was completed ahead of the latest data indicating that the Omicron variant may produce a disease less severe than the Delta strain of the coronavirus.

Minutes from a meeting of the Scientific Advisory Group on Emergencies on 23 December noted that “peak (hospital) admissions are highly uncertain, but, even with reduced severity, may be similar to or higher than previous peaks in the absence of significant behavior change or More interventions.

“The earlier interventions occur, and the more stringent they are, the more likely they are to be effective,” the record said.

Any move to return to the type of lockdown restrictions in Step 2 is likely to meet fierce resistance from Tory MPs.

The Prime Minister suffered a rebellion by about 100 MPs merely to agree to the current Plan B measures in England.

The threat of another rebellion might encourage him to rely on the directive to limit socialization rather than new laws, if ministers believe additional measures are needed.

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