The Guardian view on Trump’s crowd, a year later: Threats to democracy grow | editorial

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The threat to American democracy today may be greater than it was when rebel gangs overran the US Capitol a year ago, in an effort to prevent a peaceful transition of power after free and fair elections. Joe Biden is trapped in the White House and as time goes on, the shock of their deadly attack has worn off. But if the danger appears less urgent, addressing it is no less urgent.

We know more than we did a year ago about the full-blown violence and threat of riots, and what preceded them — including a presentation by Donald Trump’s chief of staff, Mark Meadows, detailing the methods for conducting a coup. The rioters were imprisoned, but so far no case has been brought against those who encouraged and incited them. And Trump himself reappeared, with a fist resembling his party’s cult. He and his allies have more time to plan for the two halves of this year and 2024. State legislatures are building an election-stealing machine. In short: January 6 was not an end but a beginning.

Hear the warnings of American political scientists. One says that the United States is “closer to civil war than any of us would like to believe”. Another warns that the January 6 rebels are not part of a fringe: he sees a new mass political movement with violence at its core. Others predict a slide into a Hungarian-style competitive authoritarian regime in which the trappings of elections remain, but are so rigged that Democrats cannot win.

Faced with an electorate who rejected them, Republicans had already established their advantage in the Electoral College, the Senate, and the Supreme Court. However, it is the Republicans who claim that they are cheated by the system. A large segment of the population is now detached from both political reality and political ideals – believing the 2020 elections to be stolen, and believing that force is an acceptable response. “Alternative facts” are becoming a norm: According to a recent poll, 68% of Americans believe there is no evidence of widespread election fraud in 2020—but 62% of Republicans disagree. While 60% of Americans believe Mr. Trump bears either “a great deal” or “a great deal of responsibility” for storming the Capitol, 72% of Republicans say he bears “only some” or “nothing at all.” Another poll found that 9% of Americans believe that “the use of force is justified to restore Donald J. Trump to the presidency.”

It’s hard to know where one can begin to address the sprawling right-wing disinformation ecosystem. The aspiration for a political response to the political strife – the Rebuild Better Act – has been killed off by the Republican opposition, aided by conservative Democrat Joe Manchin. And he and fellow Democratic Senator Kirsten Senema will take fresh pressure on voting rights if they remain against the blocking amendment.

Meanwhile, the Republicans who tried to rein in Mr. Trump on January 6, or publicly criticized him afterward, are long back in line. In 12 short months they rewrote history. Their hostility to the Select Committee’s investigations, and their rush to file a report before the November midterm elections lest it be shut down afterward, is yet another attempt to silence the truth. Last year’s tidal wave of statewide voting restrictions has continued, and election sabotage is on the rise, as Republicans give legislatures control over vote-counting and replace nonpartisan officials with Trumpists. In the face of these persistent and committed efforts by activists, politicians, and ordinary voters to defend their rights and protect their democratic institutions.

Political violence is likely to increase in the future, not least because the elite in the Republican Party helped legitimize it. Senior Republicans have not only come to terms with Mr. Trump and his tactics, they have embraced them. Next time, these efforts may have support from within the Services. However, the deeper threat may be that force will not be required. The dismantling of American democracy may be bloodless: quieter, more sophisticated, more pessimistic—and yet destructive for it.

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