UK Covid Live: Plans to tackle 5.8m questionable NHS backlog as Omicron cases increase, say MPs | Policy

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good morning. One of the biggest issues for the government at the moment is what’s happening in the NHS. It is often presented as a simple question, will the NHS be “overwhelmed” or not? (a binary framework for which the government itself is largely responsible, as it has made this a key criterion for Covid alert levels) but, as we found out on Tuesday, Boris Johnson cannot define what the NHS means “overwhelmed”, and that’s because there is no yes or no answer. Chris Hobson, CEO of NHS Providers, made this point very well in the course and it’s a long thread he posted on Twitter last night.

Chris Hobson (@ChrisCEOHopson)

In one national picture, it is particularly important to be careful about language and calibrate the NHS pressure gauge. NHS leaders and staff are working incredibly hard to avoid ‘burnout’, ‘tipping point’ and ‘crisis’ and this work needs to be positively acknowledged… 16/24

January 5, 2022 Chris Hopson (@ChrisCEOHopson)

… The NHS is not just moving from a country where it provides care to one where it does not. There is also important evidence from previous waves of covid-19 that some patients will not progress if they think the NHS is “overwhelmed”. Either because they think they won’t get treatment… 17/24

January 5 2022

This is where Hopson’s thread worth reading begins in its entirety.

But people will be making a judgment about how well the NHS is doing, and whether the government is running it well, regardless of whether or not a theoretical tipping point has been reached, and a report (pdf) released this morning from the Conservative Party dominated by the House of Commons Health Committee should Read ministers consciously read. Its title is “Clearing the Backlog Caused by an Epidemic,” and its main message is that this may be impossible. She says government plans to tackle the backlog at work are at risk, partly because of Omicron, and partly because of long-term employment problems (a particular obsession for Jeremy Hunt).

This is from Hunt, the former Conservative health minister and committee chair, summarizing his committee’s findings.

The NHS faces an immeasurable challenge in addressing the backlog of cases due to the pandemic, with 5.8 million patients awaiting planned care and an estimate that the number could double by 2025.

However, our report concluded that the government’s recovery plans risk being derailed by a fully anticipated staffing crisis. The current wave of Omicron is exacerbating the problem, but we already have a serious employment crisis, with a burnt workforce, 93,000 NHS vacancies and no sign of any plan to address this.

Far from tackling the backlog, the NHS will be able to do little more than fight the daily fires unless the government wakes up to the scale of the employment crisis facing the NHS, and urgently develops a long-term plan to fix the problem.

I will focus more on Covid and the NHS today.

Johnson’s other major concern, of course, is the cost-of-living crisis. Overnight it was reported that Jacob Rees-Mogg, leader of the House of Commons, wanted to put the planned increase in National Insurance on the shelf. We’ll hear from Rhys-Mogg himself in the House of Commons later.

Here is today’s agenda.

9.30 am: ONS publishes its latest data on Long Covid.

10.10 am: George Eustis, Minister for the Environment, addresses the Oxford Conference on Agriculture.

10:30 a.m.: Jacob Rees-Mogg, Leader of the House of Commons, asks questions in the House of Commons about next week’s business.

11:30 a.m.: Downing Street holds a briefing in the lobby.

About 11:30 a.m.: Liz Truss, Secretary of State, makes a statement in the House of Commons on Russia.

Around 12:30 p.m.: Victoria Atkins, Home Secretary, makes a statement to MPs on the Afghan resettlement plan.

2 pm: The UK’s Health Security Agency publishes its weekly report on Covid surveillance.

I’ll be covering UK Covid developments in this blog today, but for broader coverage of the Coronavirus, read our global live blog.

I’m trying to monitor the BTL comments but it’s impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, include “Andrew” somewhere and I’ll likely find it. I try to answer questions, and if they are of general interest, I’ll post the question above the line (ATL), although I can’t promise that for everyone.

If you want to get my attention quickly, it is better to use Twitter. I’m on AndrewSparrow.

Alternatively, you can email me at [email protected]

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