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good morning. Boris Johnson’s position as Conservative Party leader and prime minister is more precarious than ever, but after a miserable and humiliating day – which also saw the outbreak of open war between the party in Scotland and the UK’s national leadership – his future is unclear, because the parliamentary party is still collectively deciding on the What to do next.
We were due to hear from him this morning, because he was planning a visit to Lancashire. But that was canceled “due to the result of a family member testing positive for coronavirus,” Downing Street says. A No 10 spokesperson said:
The Prime Minister will no longer visit Lancashire because a family member has tested positive for coronavirus. It will closely follow the instructions of vaccinated people, including daily testing and limiting contact with others.
Most Conservative MPs who have commented on Johnson’s leadership say they want to wait until they read the Sue Gray report’s findings on all of the party’s allegations. But Gray is a senior civil servant, which means she may take the view that whether or not the prime minister remains is a political judgment that must be made by his (colleague) politicians. Last night, Nick McPherson, a former permanent secretary at the Treasury, posted this on Twitter.
Nick Macpherson (@nickmacpherson2)
Wouldn’t the report state the facts in Sue Gray’s unique style? As we have seen today, it is open to the Prime Minister to interpret the facts. The report will therefore not be a powerful weapon, although it could cause a further dent in the confidence of the House of Commons. # mines
January 12 2022
Gray’s report may come next week, but if MacPherson and others are right, it won’t clearly settle the question of whether or not the prime minister should go.
Although many Tory MPs privately say Johnson’s position is untenable, there is little evidence that they are actively working to get rid of him. Kitty Donaldson, Bloomberg’s political editor, said last night that she believes only four of them wrote letters to the 1922 committee chair asking for a vote of confidence.
Kitty Donaldson (@kitty_donaldson)
For anything that can be conveyed, 54 Tory MPs need to send letters of no confidence to the chair of the 1922 Tory backbench committee. My measurements put that at about 4 now.
January 12 2022
So far, only four Conservative MPs (Sir Roger Gill, Douglas Ross, William, Raj and Caroline Knox) have called for Johnson’s resignation. The spectator keeps a count.
MPs will issue their verdict on the impact of Johnson’s leadership on their chances of re-election, and this morning a new YouGov poll gives Labor its biggest lead over the Conservatives for eight years.
Henry Zeffman (@hzeffman)
EXCLUSIVE Times/YouGov poll gave Labor its biggest advance since December 2013
Lab 38 (+1) Con 28 (-5) LDem 13 (+3) Green 7 (+1) RefUK 4 (-1) https://t.co/DBwJsnyqIA
January 12 2022
But even such poll numbers will not necessarily resolve the issue for the parliamentary party. MPs will remember who won the post-December 2013 general election, there is no consensus on who would succeed Johnson if there was a contest, and whether they would certainly do better.
So it looks like the party is stuck for now. But that does not make Johnson’s position secure, and his difficulties were demonstrated this morning when the minister failed to give interviews this morning to deny reports that Johnson had been privately telling colleagues that he had done nothing wrong.
BBC political editor Laura Koensberg picked it up yesterday.
Laura Koensberg (@bbclaurak)
Another Conservative MP told me that the Prime Minister had told him and his tea-room colleagues ‘it was not his fault and that he bravely took the blame on others’ – ’cause so much consternation among his colleagues’ that he had just made a public apology
January 12 2022
Many newspapers mention the same thing today. The Guardian reported that “Members of Parliament were also disturbed that the Prime Minister appeared less remorseful in private conversations after his appearance in the House of Commons than he did in public”.
The Times (Unpaid Subscription System) reported the same thing. she says:
Within minutes of delivering a “heartfelt” apology to the House of Commons for the 10th lawn drinks event during the first lockdown, Boris Johnson had a somewhat different message for Tory members in the tea room.
The prime minister, according to those present, was far from remorseful. “We’ve taken a lot of hits in politics and this is one of them,” he told his colleagues, adding, “Sometimes we take credit for things we don’t deserve and this time we get results for something we don’t deserve. “
Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross said Johnson took a similar tone when he spoke to him yesterday afternoon. He said the prime minister told him he “believes he did nothing wrong.”
This is an excerpt from the Financial Times (paywall) story.
Several MPs said Johnson remains in denial. One Conservative MP said: “He said that sometimes in life you get the credit for things you don’t deserve, while sometimes you get the blame for something you don’t deserve either.” “He goes through his life thinking he doesn’t deserve to be blamed.”
When asked about these reports on the Today programme, Brandon Lewis, Minister of Northern Ireland, dismissed the reports as “small fortunes that may or may not have come out of [Commons] Tea room.” He said he had not heard Johnson himself say he was not responsible for what happened, and said Johnson was “very, very sincere” in his apology.
I will focus mostly on the fallout from this crisis today. Johnson isn’t visiting, but we’ll get a 10 Lobby Briefing, and Jacob Rees-Mogg, Leader of the House of Commons, will ask questions in the House of Commons.
I’m trying to monitor the BTL comments but it’s impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, include “Andrew” somewhere and I’ll likely find it. I try to answer the questions, and if they are of general interest, I will post the question and answer it above the line (ATL), although I can’t promise that for everyone.
If you want to get my attention quickly, it is better to use Twitter. I’m on AndrewSparrow.
Alternatively, you can email me at [email protected]
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