Russia moves its forces to Belarus to conduct joint exercises near Ukraine’s borders | Russia

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Russia has begun moving its forces to Belarus, neighboring Ukraine in the north, for joint military exercises, in a move likely to heighten fears in the West that Moscow is preparing for an invasion.

The joint military exercises, called ‘United Resolve’, are set to take place at a time when Russia is also massing forces along Ukraine’s eastern border, threatening a possible invasion that could unleash Europe’s biggest conflict in decades.

Videos on social media from Belarus showed artillery and other military vehicles arriving on flatbed vehicles owned by Russia’s state railway company, Alexander Volvovich, the head of Belarus’ Security Council, said in a briefing that troops were already arriving ahead of the exercises scheduled for February. .

Some military analysts have suggested that Russia could send its forces through Belarus in the event of a massive invasion, effectively expanding Ukraine’s defenses by taking advantage of the two countries’ borders of about 700 miles. Others believe that Belarus will not play a serious role in the conflict if Russia launches an attack on Ukraine.

The Belarusian leader, Alexander Lukashenko, has responded to international pressure and isolation by strengthening ties with Russia, offering explicit support for Putin’s military buildup while receiving diplomatic and economic support from the Kremlin to fight Western sanctions. He also abandoned his country’s supposedly neutral stance on the conflict in Ukraine and publicly supported Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea.

Lukashenko said the exercises will take place in western Belarus, near the borders of NATO members Poland and Lithuania, and its southern flank with Ukraine.

He told the senior military officials, “Set an exact date and tell us, so we are not to blame for suddenly massing some troops here as if we were preparing to go to war.”

Reports from Russia have also shown more military equipment, including tanks and short-range ballistic missiles, being moved across the country towards Ukraine over the past week.

Germany’s Foreign Minister, Annalina Barbock, said before a meeting with her Russian counterpart on Tuesday that she hoped the tensions would be resolved through diplomacy, but if not, Moscow would pay a “heavy price” for aggressive actions towards Ukraine.

No specific number of troops or a time frame was given for the joint Russia-Belarus exercises, which Putin announced during a summit with Lukashenko in late December. Lukashenko said on Monday that the exact dates for February were still being set.

During the briefing, he said the exercises were necessary due to the presence of NATO forces in Poland and the neighboring Baltic states, as well as Ukraine’s deployment of troops to the border in response to the migrant crisis he helped create last year.

Scenarios of the Russian invasion of Ukraine

“Why are we and Russia reprimanded for holding maneuvers, exercises, etc. when they come from afar?” Lukashenko said in hot comments that Western countries have deployed nearly 30,000 soldiers near his country’s borders. There are some hot heads calling for war. We hear these statements.”

He also echoed the Kremlin’s aggressive rhetoric that could be used to justify military intervention in Ukraine, claiming that Kiev was preparing battalions of “ultra-nationalists”. A Ukrainian official called the comments manipulative and “part of an information war”.

Volvovich said that the exercises will include training Belarusian and Russian soldiers to repel air and ground attacks, neutralize enemy saboteurs and practice other maneuvers. He also downplayed their timing, saying there was “nothing unusual” in it because it was announced late last year, according to a report in the state-run Belta news agency.

However, there are indications that Belarus has played a more active role in supporting Russia in its ongoing conflict with Ukraine and the West.

Kiev initially said it believed a hacking team linked to Belarusian state intelligence may have played a role in a major cyber attack on government websites late last week, in which nuclear-capable Russian bombers recently flew over western Belarus.

Lukashenko has cemented ties with Putin since 2020, when he launched a bloody crackdown on protests sparked by vote-rigging during the presidential election. He was pushed into further international isolation after he grounded a Ryanair flight in order to arrest a critic of his government and helped manufacture a migrant crisis at the EU border, leading to a humanitarian emergency.

Belarus adopted an ostensibly neutral stance in 2014 and avoided recognizing Russia’s annexation of Crimea, but the dynamic has changed dramatically as the country has relied more on Russian diplomatic and material support in the past two years.

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