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Experts say a SpaceX rocket is on a collision course with the moon after spending nearly seven years in space.
The booster was originally launched from Florida in February 2015 as part of an interplanetary mission to send a space weather satellite on a million-mile journey.
But after completing a long burn of its engines and sending the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Deep Space Climate Observatory on its way to the so-called Lagrange Point – a gravity-neutral location four times from the Moon and in direct line with the Sun – the second rocket stage became deserted. .
Meteorologist Eric Berger explained in a recent post on Ars Technica that at this point it was high enough that it didn’t have enough fuel to return to Earth’s atmosphere but that it also “lacked the energy to escape the gravity of the Earth-Moon system.”
“So it has been following a somewhat chaotic orbit since February 2015,” Berger added.
Space watchers believe the rocket – about four metric tons of “space junk” – is on its way to crisscrossing the moon at about 2.58 km/s within weeks.
Bill Gray, who writes software for tracking near-Earth objects, asteroids, minor planets, and comets, said the upper phase of Falcon 9 will likely hit the far side of the moon, near the equator, on March 4.
The data analyst said in a recent blog post that the object “made a close flyby of the moon on January 5” but that it would have “a certain effect on March 4th.”
This is the first unintended case [of space junk hitting the moon] who I know,” Gray added.
The exact location the rocket will hit is still unknown due to the unexpected effect of sunlight “pushing” on the rocket and the “ambiguity in the measurement of rotational periods” which could slightly alter its orbit.
These unexpected effects are very small. But they will build up between now and March 4,” Gray wrote, adding that more observations are needed to improve the exact time and location of impact.
As for whether the collision can be seen from Earth, Gray says it likely goes unnoticed.
“The bulk of the moon is on the way, and even if it’s on the near side, the effect is two days after the new moon.”
Jonathan McDowell, an astrophysicist at Harvard University, wrote that the collision was expected on March 4 but “wasn’t a big deal.”
For those who ask: Yes, the old Falcon 9 second stage left in high orbit in 2015 will hit the moon on March 4. It’s interesting, but it’s not a big deal.
– Jonathan McDowell (@planet4589) on January 25, 2022
However, space enthusiasts believe the effect can provide valuable data.
Berger believes the event will allow observations of subsurface material ejected by the rocket, while Gray says it is “rooting out for the lunar collision.”
“We already know what happens when junk hits the ground; there isn’t much to learn from that,” he said.
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