Explaining the Ukraine-Russia conflict: A simple guide to what’s going on

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Russia has amassed tens of thousands of troops along its border with Ukraine in recent months, raising suspicions that an invasion is imminent.

World leaders including the United States, NATO and the European Union have warned Russia of any aggression, insisting that there will be retaliation if it attacks Ukraine.

Over the past week, with tensions rapidly escalating, the United States has put 8,500 troops on alert for deployment to Ukraine.

Meanwhile, NATO announced yesterday that it will send additional combat aircraft and ships to Eastern Europe, raising fears of an all-out conflict.

So what is really going on between Ukraine and Russia, where did it all begin, and how might the crisis unfold?

How did the crisis start?

Going back eight years gives the current crisis more context.

Russia annexed Ukraine’s Crimea peninsula in 2014 after the head of a Moscow-friendly country was ousted from power due to mass protests. Weeks later, Russia threw its weight behind a separatist rebellion that erupted in eastern Ukraine.

More than 14,000 people have died in the fighting that devastated the industrial region of eastern Ukraine known as Donbas. Both Ukraine and the West accused Russia of sending troops and weapons to support the rebels, but Moscow denied allegations that Russians who joined the separatists did so voluntarily.

The 2015 peace agreement – the Minsk-2 Agreement – was brokered by France and Germany to help end the large-scale fighting. The 13-point agreement committed Ukraine to granting autonomy to breakaway regions and amnesty to rebels while Ukraine regains full control of its border with Russia in rebel-held territory.

The agreement is very complicated because Russia still insists that it was not a party to the conflict, and therefore is not bound by its terms.

In point 10 of the agreement, there is a call for the withdrawal of all foreign armed formations and military equipment from the two disputed regions, Donetsk and Luhansk: Ukraine says this refers to troops from Russia, but Moscow denies that there are any forces there.

Earlier this year, an escalation of ceasefire violations in the east and the concentration of Russian forces near Ukraine raised war fears, but tensions eased when Moscow withdrew the bulk of its forces after maneuvers in April.

How is the situation at present?

In early December 2021, US intelligence officials determined that Russia was planning to deploy 175,000 troops near the Ukrainian border in preparation for a possible invasion that they believed could begin as early as 2022.

Ukraine complained in December that Moscow kept more than 90,000 troops near the two countries’ borders, warning that a “large-scale escalation” was possible in January.

In addition, the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces said that Russia has about 2,100 military personnel in rebel-held eastern Ukraine and that Russian officers occupy all leading positions in the separatist forces.

Moscow has repeatedly denied the presence of its forces in eastern Ukraine, has not provided any details about their military numbers and locations, saying that their deployment on its territory should not cause anyone to worry.

Meanwhile, Russia accuses Ukraine of breaching the 2015 Minsk-2 agreement, and has criticized the West for failing to encourage Ukraine to comply.

Amid mutual accusations, Russia rejected the four-way meeting with Ukraine, France and Germany, saying it was pointless in light of Ukraine’s refusal to abide by the 2015 agreement.

Moscow has sharply criticized the United States and its NATO allies for providing Ukraine with weapons and conducting joint exercises, saying this encourages Ukrainian hawks to try to retake rebel-held areas by force.

What might happen next?

The situation has now reached a kind of stalemate as both sides anticipate the other’s next move.

Moscow continues to deny talks about an invasion of Ukraine while Western leaders have insisted an incursion may be imminent.

US President Joe Biden said he believed Vladimir Putin would “intervene” in Ukraine, while British Prime Minister Boris Johnson warned that “bleak” intelligence indicated that Moscow was planning a lightning strike on Kiev. Meanwhile, personnel from the US and UK embassies in the Ukrainian capital have been ordered to return – a move President Vladimir Zelensky called “exaggerated”.

NATO and other Western leaders have threatened to impose massive sanctions on Russia if it attacks Ukraine, but it remains to be seen whether Moscow will take any notice.

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