Opinion polls show Socialists victory in Portuguese general election – Politico

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LISBON – Prime Minister Antonio Costa’s Socialist Party is set to score a surprisingly comfortable victory in Sunday’s Portuguese general election, according to opinion polls, preparing Costa for his third consecutive term.

The Socialists were expected to win 37-42 percent of the vote in a poll broadcast by RTP1 television after polls closed, ahead of the centre-right Social Democratic Party (PSD) by 30-35 percent.

Cheers erupted at PS campaign headquarters following the outcome of the predictions, which were met with predictions of a tight race following increased support for the PSD.

At 42 percent, the Socialist Party may be close to winning an outright majority, which Costa has previously eluded. Over the past six years, minority governments have received conditional support from two far-left parties.

Opinion polls show that the far-right Shiga party is in third place with 5-8%, close to the liberal pro-business initiative with 4-7% and the far-left bloc at 3-6%.

Before the elections, Costa said he was ready to work with any party, except Shiga, to form a stable government.

“It seems clear that the Socialist Party will win,” Foreign Minister Augusto Santos Silva told RTP. “We will open a dialogue with all parties except for one, and we will assume our responsibilities to form a stable government,” he added.

However, it is not clear from opinion polls whether the general left will win the majority of seats in the 230-seat assembly.

Along with the Socialists and the Left Bloc, the Portuguese Communist Party was seen winning with 3-5 percent, a small left-wing group called Livre with 1-3 percent, and animal rights activists PAN 1-3 percent.

Roy Rio, the leader of the Social Democratic Party, said before the elections that he would not enter the far-right into a coalition government. But he did not rule out heading a center-right minority government with parliamentary support from Shiga if the right had an overall majority.

“This is bittersweet,” Chiga leader Andre Ventura told reporters. “I’m happy with Chiga’s growth, but it looks like Antonio Costa will stay as prime minister.”

The Socialists have ruled since 2015 in a minority government, with the support of the Left Bloc and the Communists. But the far left turned against Costa in October to vote to cut the government’s 2022 budget, precipitating a snap election on Sunday.

Voters seem to have punished the far left for this, as both were looking to lose votes.

The abstention rate was estimated at 49-54 percent, similar to the last elections in 2019 despite this year’s epidemiological restrictions.

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