Sir John Curtis says PM is ‘fighting a losing battle’ to recover from party scandal

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Boris Johnson is “fighting a losing battle” in his efforts to recover with voters from the party scandal, according to one of the country’s top polling experts.

As the prime minister tries to win back support from Conservative MPs by making changes to 10th, Sir John Curtis told The Independent that public opinion has hardened against him in recent weeks in a way that “has been very difficult to reverse”.

The political scientist said a high percentage of Conservative voters “don’t believe what he’s saying”, revealing that his own analysis of recent polls shows 41 per cent of Tory voters in the last election thought Johnson should resign.

“When two-fifths of the people who voted for him in 2019 think he should go – these are very substantial and amazing things,” said the University of Strathclyde expert.

It comes as former Conservative Party leader Sir Ian Duncan Smith raised doubts that Johnson could recover after losing the confidence of voters. When you lose [trust]He told the BBC that getting him back was a very difficult task.

However, Sir Ian urged colleagues not to submit a letter of no-confidence and plunge the party into a “fierce war” of the leadership contest while the government had to focus on the cost of living crisis.

The senior Conservative Party official also asked rivals to “modify their ambitions”, in an apparent warning to Chancellor Rishi Sunak and others he believes are considering leadership offers.

Cabinet Minister Kwasi Kwarting issued a staunch defense of the PM during media interviews on Sunday, as Number 10 desperately tries to shore up support for Cabinet members following the appointment of Cabinet Office Minister Steve Barclay as Chief of Staff Number 10.

The business secretary dismissed a claim by the Conservative Party’s chief, Sir Charles Walker, that Johnson’s ouster was “inevitable”, and urged MPs to give Johnson “the time and space” to make good on his reappointment promises.

Mr Kwarteng also dismissed ‘fantastic speculation’ about the number of letters of no confidence submitted by MPs to 1922 Committee Chairman Sir Graham Brady, after a report that the Prime Minister’s shadow whipping team believed at least 35 letters had already been sent.

Number 10 is not preparing for the possibility that the 54-character threshold will soon be crossed, leading to an immediate vote on Johnson’s leadership, with vacillating MPs still angry with parties considering whether the prime minister can restore his party’s standing in the election.

In an interview with The Independent, Sir John referred to the latest poll showing that 75 per cent of Conservative voters in 2019 believe Johnson has broken his Covid rules – and 61 per cent of Tory voters do not believe he is telling the truth about parties. .

Sir John said: “A high proportion of Tory voters think he broke the rules and don’t believe what he’s saying – that’s a real problem for him.” “The question becomes, what will they believe in the future?”

The expert added: “Political parties can recover from electoral problems. But leaders rarely recover, once the leader becomes very unpopular. It is very difficult to reverse.

“So far, Boris Johnson is fighting a losing battle in convincing people that he hasn’t broken the rules… The art of public speaking, in which he was so good, may not be enough to enable him to restore his reputation.”

Sir John said Mr Johnson’s appeal to voters had been severely damaged, not only by stories about parties in tenth place, but by the prime minister’s own explanation that he thought he was attending a “work event” at a “bring your own liquor” park gathering in May. 2020.

“We know from the Barnard Castle episode that people view rule-breakers during a public health crisis with a great deal of moral approval. The phrase ‘action event’ entered the lexicon the same way it entered Barnard Castle,” the polling expert said.

The latest surveys by YouGov, Savanta ComRes and Ipsos MORI put Labor’s lead between six and nine points, respectively. Sir John said polls showed the Conservative Party’s vote in the Red Wall seats “has fallen by exactly the same percentage” as the rest of the country.

His Conservative counterpart Gavin Barwell, who served as Theresa May’s chief of staff, said on Sunday there was a “strong case for change” in 10th place – but warned MPs there was “no chance in hell that the prime minister would go on voluntarily resigning”.

Lord Barwell told Sky News: “I am leaning towards the Conservatives doing a better change and I also think it’s for the good of the country in terms of trust and faith in our policies…a decision.”

The peer also raised questions about how different Mr. Barclay’s appointment as chief of staff and journalist Goto Harry as Director of Communications would make its operations.

Lord Barwell said Mr. Barclay would have to find a “different way” to do the job despite his other duties, but added: “There are only so many different advisors he can give if the person at the top does not actually listen to the advice that is being given.”

Comments made by Harry criticizing Johnson also surfaced on Sunday. New Doctor No. 10 said in 2018 he would be “a hugely divisive figure” if he became the Tory leader and also noted that he was “sexually incontinent”.

The new head of communications for the BBC’s Newscast podcast also said in recent weeks that the prime minister had “weaknesses” to cover and “always underestimated the importance of having a great team around him”.

Meanwhile, Number 10 fears that Johnson’s former strategist-turned-nemesis Dominic Cummings may be writing new clues about his apartment financing this week, according to a report in the Sunday Times.

Cummings is said to have set up WhatsApp groups via Whitehall for people to send him information about any “immoral or incompetent behavior” by Mr Johnson.

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