Ending Covid tests and isolation may cause rapid rise in virus, say experts | Coronavirus

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A sudden end to testing and isolation could lead to rapid epidemic growth of the coronavirus, experts have warned.

On Monday Boris Johnson is due to outline a “living safely with Covid” plan for England, which is expected to include a lifting of all remaining restrictions and changes to testing and isolation.

Among expected proposals is the scrapping of free home-delivered lateral flow tests, and a winding down of PCR testing. It is also likely the requirement for anyone with Covid to isolate will end soon.

However, experts on the government’s scientific pandemic influenza group on operational subgroup, known as SPI-MO, which feeds into Sage, have warned that ending testing and isolation could lead to a return to rapid epidemic growth of the coronavirus.

In a document released on Friday the group note that estimates from a modeling team at the University of Warwick suggest that a combination of measures and behavioral change such as testing, self-isolation, mask wearing and increased home working are currently reducing transmission by approximately 20 -45%.

“Warwick’s estimates are equivalent to there being the potential for transmission to increase by between around 25% and 80% if the population were to return to pre-pandemic behaviors and no mitigations,” the document says.

“Warwick’s analysis indicates that, while behavior change following the lifting of restrictions has previously been gradual, a sudden change, such as an end to testing and isolation, has the scope to lead to a return to rapid epidemic growth.”

The group add that factors such as waning immunity, seasonality and the emergence of new variants could also affect transmission, either driving it up or down, adding that BA.2 – a close cousin of Omicron that is currently increasing in prevalence in the UK – may have a growth advantage over other forms of the variant.

“If this were the case, it is possible that SPI-M-O’s medium-term projections may underestimate the short-term trajectory of hospitalisations,” the group wrote.

Dr Chaand Nagpaul, the chair of the BMA council, also raised concerns over potential changes to testing and isolation, noting that data from the Office for National Statistics suggested about 1 in 20 people in England were infected last week, and there continues to be significant work absence due to Covid.

“It’s clear that we will have to learn to adjust to the reality of Covid-19. However, the BMA agrees with NHS leaders that living with Covid doesn’t mean ignoring its continued harm to many, and must not result in removing protections to some of the most vulnerable in our society. Scrapping all restrictions and allowing the infection to spread in an unmonitored and unfettered manner that would be damaging to the health of millions, including for those who go on to suffer long Covid symptoms,” he said.

“Without access to free testing for the public or a legal requirement for the sick to self-isolate, protecting others from illness and surveillance of the disease and its prevalence vanishes; We won’t know where outbreaks are happening, whether they are circulating among more vulnerable populations, and this means local public health teams will be lacking key information to be able to respond effectively to Covid outbreaks in their local areas,” he added.

“Charging for tests will only discourage people from checking if they have Covid, especially if their symptoms are mild enough for them to continue socialising and mixing with others.”

Nagpau added that World Health Organization had released updated guidance this week for contact tracing and quarantine, which said any interruption or shortening of these measures would increase the risk of onward transmission.

“Of course, we all want to see a time when measures are no longer needed,” said Nagpau. “However, relaxing them must be done sensibly, based on data, and gradually, in consultation with the profession, and not at the cost of public health or our already-stretched NHS.”

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