The Weather Network – Eyes on the next potent system heading for Ontario, Quebec

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Sunday, February 20th 2022, 11:25 am – Forecasters warn that unsettled weather will impact both Ontario and Quebec mid-week.

Southern Ontario will begin noticing the first signs of an incoming potent system on Monday when temperatures start to climb well above seasonal.

A southerly flow behind an approaching warm front will allow temperatures to soar into the high single digits on Monday and Tuesday, with double-digit readings possible in far southwestern Ontario near Windsor.

The track that the next system takes will determine the areas that see snow, ice, and rain in both Ontario and Quebec.

Confidence is growing that southern Ontario is in for soaking rain early Tuesday. Many regions can expect 10-20 mm, with higher totals north of the Greater Toronto Area. This, in addition to snowmelt on the already oversaturated soils, is raising flooding risks for southern cities.

Winter lovers would have to head north of cottage country for snowfall. A large swath of 20-40 cm of snow is expected through Sault Ste. Marie, Sudbury, and Timmins, which could create hazardous travel conditions.

Cottage country will see the risk of accumulating ice into Tuesday afternoon, which will then push into the Nation’s Capital during Tuesday evening’s commute. Ice accretion could linger for several hours into early Wednesday.

Quebec will see snow with this system and over 40 cm is possible for central regions of the province, while Quebec City and southern areas may see 5-10 cm.

Freezing precipitation is possible for major cities of Montreal, Gatineau, and Quebec City by Tuesday evening’s commute. Ice accretion could linger several hours into Wednesday, which would result in slippery conditions.

Gusty conditions and colder air will filter across Ontario behind this system. Northwesterly winds may ignite lake effect snow squalls off of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay on Wednesday while temperatures fall back below freezing by mid-week.

Forecasters are also keeping an eye on a late-week system that could potentially bring a hefty amount of snow to southern Ontario, depending on the track. Early models indicate that up to 10-15 cm is possible for Friday, but others have suggested the system may take a more southerly trajectory, avoiding the region altogether.

Check back frequently over the next couple of days as our meteorologists refine the forecast and help you stay ahead of whatever heads our way with the next couple of storms.

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