Macron v Le Pen: French presidential election takes place amid low turnout fears – live | French presidential election 2022

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Fifteen minutes to go and the tension is, well, climbing.

The result will also be being watched closely around Europe. A Le Pen victory would throw the EU into termoil, as the Guardian’s Jennifer Rankin and I argued in this article:

Much of what the far-right leader does want to do – on the economy, social policy and immigration – implies breaking the EU’s rules, and her possible arrival in the Elysée Palace could prove calamitous for the 27-member bloc.

Le Pen may have dropped previous pledges to take France – a founder member of the EU, its second-biggest economy and half of the vital Franco-German engine that has powered it since its creation – out of the euro single currency and the bloc.

In the 2017 election, fears of the economic consequences of that policy, above all among older voters worried about their savings, are widely seen as having contributed to her heavy second-round defeat against the pro-European Emmanuel Macron.

This time, the EU does not even feature by name among the dozen or so key themes of her electoral programme. Many of her concrete policy proposals, however, blatantly contradict the obligations of EU membership.

Opponents and commentators have called the strategy “Frexit in all but name”: an approach that, while it may no longer aim to remove France from the bloc, seeks to fundamentally refashion it, and that could lead to a paralysing standoff with Brussels.

You can see read our full story here:

Most polling stations are now closed and we’ll be getting the initial estimates of the result in about half an hour now.

A reminder that these are not exit polls, but projections based on actual votes cast in a stations representative selection of polling around the country, that are then weighted by the pollsters to give a national estimate of vote share.

These estimates are historically very accurate indeed, so we can be pretty confident about the final result if there is anything more than a one percentage point difference between the contenders.

Three major polling organizations are now predicting a 28% abstention rate, which would be the highest in France since 1969, reflecting the unhappiness of many voters with the choice they are being offered (and the fact that it’s the Easter holidays in much of the country) .

It’s hard to say which candidate would be most impacted by a low national turnout, because the regional breakdown would be decisive. The real concern is for after the vote, because being elected on a low turnout would inevitably lead to questions about the legitimacy of the incoming president.

Worth noting, though, that in many western democracies a 72% turnout would be considered high.

French citizens overseas are voting today, too, and the Guardian’s Matt Weaver has been talking to some of the 116,595 of them who are registered to vote in London.

After spending three hours speaking to dozens of voters, Matt says he “could not find a single voter for the far-right candidate” — perhaps hardly surprising given that in 2017 Macron won 95% of the second-round vote in London.

Michelle Pickard, a French teacher, said:

The first priority is to block Le Pen, but I quite approve of Macron’s policy, and he is a true European and I am too. If he wins it will be a small victory, and he will have to take onboard all these voters who are not happy with him.

Christian Eskenazi, a retired chief sommelier, was less enthusiastic about the incumbent:

I find him too arrogant, but I’m pro-European and anti-Le Pen so I had to go for him. It was not a vote for a politician, it was a vote against an idea. My mother survived Auschwitz but she saw her mother and father die there. She spent her life visiting schools as a witness against racism and xenophobia. She caution of the dangers of voting for the far right, and the danger is still there.

You can read Matt’s full story here:

Updated at 18.09 BSTE

Both candidates are now back in Paris from their northern constituencies, French media report.

Macron is ensconced in the Élysée Palace on the Rue du Faubourg Saint-Honoré and will later join his campaign team near the Eiffel Tower. Le Pen is at her campaign headquarters in the west of Paris.

Updated at 18.02 BSTE

With less than two hours to go before the initial estimates of the result, here are some of the pictures that have come in from the agencies during the day:

Marine Le Pen meets supporters after casting her ballot in Henin-Beaumont on Sunday. Photograph: Ian Langsdon/EPAFranciscan nuns from the order of Saint Clare collecting their ballots at a polling station in Cormontreuil, north-east France. Photograph: François Nascimbeni/AFP/GettyMacron casts his vote in Le Touquet, northern France. Photograph: Gonzalo Fuentes/AFP/GettyAnd Le Pen does the same in Henin-Beaumont, northern France. Photograph: Michel Spingler/AP

Updated at 17.48 BSTE

If Macron does win, as polls so far have predicted, he will be the first French president since Jacques Chirac in 2002 to secure a second term – and Chirac was massively helped by being up against Marine Le Pen’s father, Jean-Marie, whom he defeated in a landslide.

In fact, only three of Macron’s predecessors as have won re-election, and none have managed it while at the head of a predominantly president in the national assembly. Charles de Gaulle was re-elected in 1965, but his initial election in 1958 was by an electoral college.

France’s first Socialist president, François Mitterrand, and Chirac both won’t re-election but they did so without having a majority in Parliament, so they were largely exempt from criticism over their record since they were not fully in control of government.

Updated at 17.46 BSTE

Whatever the outcome, Macron and Le Pen have their plans prepared for the evening, both in Paris.

Win or lose, Macron will address his supporters on the Champ de Mars, at the foot of the Eiffel Tower – another Paris landmark, after the president chose to celebrate his 2017 victory in the courtyard of the Louvre.

Press are already starting to arrive, as Claire Paccalin of France24 reports:

If Le Pen wins, she plans to parade through the capital in a car at the head of the 13 National Rally coaches that have carried her campaign around the country.

The procession will start from the Pavillon d’Armenonville, a Belle Epoque-style venue in the Bois de Boulogne where the far-right leader’s campaign team will gather for the result, before taking in the Arc de Triomphe and three of the capital’s main squares – the Place de la Concorde, Place de la Bastille and Place de la République.

It’s unclear if it will go ahead if she loses.

Updated at 17.29 BSTE

Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the radical-left leader of La France Insoumise (Unbowed France), also voted earlier today.

Mélenchon finished a close third to Le Pen in the first round a fortnight ago and is now focusing his attention on rallying the scattered forces of the French left for the elections in June, as my colleague Kim Willsher explains in an article for the Observer today :

Whoever wins the presidential election in France, one man is determined to sideline them and restrict their powers.

Even before the result is known tomorrow, the radical left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who has emerged as a surprise kingmaker, has called on voters to make him prime minister in the elections in June.

Mélenchon, a fervent opponent of both Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pend, pledged that if successful he would force whoever wins the keys to the Élysée tomorrow into an uncomfortable “cohabitation” that would hamstring efforts by them to pass reforms the left opponents.

You can read Kim’s full article here:

Updated at 17.29 BSTE

Both candidates voted earlier in the day. Emmanuel Macron and his wife, Brigitte, cast their ballots in his constituency in the resort of Le Touquet at about 1pm, showing their ID and voter cards like every other voter.

And Marine Le Pen voted in her constituency in Hénin-Beaumont in northern France, just south of Lille, soon after 11am.

Updated at 17.30 BSTE

Turnout at 5pm stands at 63.2%, accoring to the interior ministry – that’s 1.8% lower than during the first round, and 2.1% down on the second round five years ago.

For the time being this doesn’t look like the surge in abstentions that some had feared.

Although, as Mathieu Gallard of pollsters Ipsos points out, the projected abstention rate of 28% would be the lowest turnout for a presidential run-off since 1969.

Updated at 17.30 BSTE

The basics

A quick reminder of how Macron and Le Pen reached this final round, what their respective platforms are, and how we can expect the evening to unfold.

The current president and his far-right rival finished first and second – from a field of 12 – in the first round of voting two weeks ago, on 10 April.

Macron polled just under 9.8m votes (27.85% of those cast) and Le Pen 8.13m votes (23.15%). The radical-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon came a close third with 7.7m votes, just 420,000 short of Le Pen. The candidates for the mainstream right and left imploded, with Valérie Pécresse of the rightwing Les Républicains scoring 4.7% and Anne Hidalgo, the Paris mayor who ran for the Socialist party, managing just 1.7%.

Macron’s manifesto includes a cap on fuel prices, index-linked pensions and a progressive rise in the retirement age to 65. He also campaigned for a stronger Europe.

Le Pen has promised to lower the retirement age from 62 to 60 for those who began work before the age of 20, cut VAT on fuel, and pass a new “national preference” law that would give French nationals priority benefits for housing, jobs and .

Most polling stations close at 7pm local time and those in big cities and hour later. Initial estimations of the result are expected from several pollsters at 8pm.

These are not exit polls but projections based on actual votes cast in a representative sample of polling stations around the country, weighted by the pollster’s magic. They are usually very accurate.

Updated at 17.31 BSTE

The abstention rate could be critical in this election, as could the number of voters who spoil their ballots.

Turnout at midday was 26.41%, according to the interior ministry – higher than the 25.48% turnout for the first round, but lower than at midday in 2017 when it was 28.23%.

But national turnout figures can disguise strong regional variations, which could prove vital. For the moment, no significant pattern seems to have emerged that might favor either candidate.

The official map of early turnout by departement does not reveal much. The red (highish turnout) dept is Loir et Cher, where Macron and Le Pen were neck and neck with just under 28% in Round One. The blue one (lowish turnout so far) in SE is Vaucluse, a Le Pen stronghold pic.twitter.com/PbugR5sRUl

— Mujtaba (Mij) Rahman (@Mij_Europe) April 24, 2022

Updated at 17.32 BSTE

It’s le crunchJon Henley

Hello and welcome to our live coverage of the crucial second round in France’s presidential elections to decide who occupies the Élysée Palace in Paris for the next five years.

The high-stakes race pits the centrist incumbent, Emmanuel Macron, against his challenger Marine Le Pen, of the far-right Rassemblement National – and its outcome could prove far-reaching not just for the future direction of France but for Europe as a whole .

Polls since the two candidate’s testy TV debate on Wednesday have shown Macron’s score stable or rising at between 55.5% and 57.5%, a lead of between 10 and 14 points. But they also predict the lowest turnout for a presidential runoff since 1969, which means a shock Le Pen win cannot be ruled out.

The race is in any case much closer than when the two contenders met in 2017, partly reflecting Le Pen’s long, successful drive to sanitise her party and normalize its policies, and partly reflecting the perception of Macron among many voters, notably on the left, as a “president of the rich”.

We’ll be bringing you news, comment and analysis from me, the Guardian’s Paris bureau chief Angelique Chrisafis and correspondent Kim Willsher, with usually accurate projections of the results due when polling stations close at 8pm local time.

Updated at 17.33 BSTE

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