Sinema dumps Democrats, but analysts say it’s not a Senate earthquake, just a gambit for re-election

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Senator Kirsten Sinema announced Friday that she is leaving the Democratic Party to register as an independent.

So what does that mean?

The initial reaction from analysts was that the Arizona lawmaker’s move wouldn’t change how the Senate functions much, and that it had more to do with her potential re-election campaign in 2024.

“At this point, we don’t expect Sinema’s defection to formally shift the balance of power in the Senate,” Benjamin Salisbury, director of research at Height Capital Markets, said in a note.

Two independents, Senator Angus King [of Maine] And Bernie Sanders [of Vermont]officially caucus with the Democrats, ”Salisbury noted. While Sinema refused to disclose the party with which she will meet, she said that the change will not change the way she votes, and she plans to retain her duties on the committee, which is an indication for us that she will retain her affiliation with the Democrats. From our point of view, the This move is more about positioning itself for a tough re-election in 2024.”

Sinema, who has been repeatedly criticized by progressive Democrats for moves such as opposing changes to the so-called portable interest loophole, was expected to face a challenge from the left in the Democratic primary. But as an independent, she can avoid the primaries and focus on the general election in her battleground state.

Her calculation was that a progressive Democratic “brand” wouldn’t help her get re-elected in Arizona, but centrists and some from every party would,” Terry Haines, founder of Pangea Policy, wrote in a note. “So there’s no percentage point in doing anything. Other than asserting its independence, this is a prominent, direct and effective way of doing so.”

The senator’s move is not an earthquake for the Senate, Haines said: “Sinema itself says that’s not the case, that it will continue to do the job in the same way — and there’s no reason to dispute that.”

He also wrote that “the primary outcome for 2023-24 is the same as it was before the Sinema announcement: domestic stagnation, stable fiscal/core government spending, and continued foreign policy consensus, particularly on China and Ukraine.”

Biden’s White House offered a similar response on Friday, saying that Sinema’s decision to register as an independent in Arizona does not alter the new Democratic majority’s control of the Senate, and we have every reason to expect that we will continue to work successfully with her.

Sinema votes for Democrats 97% of the time, according to Bloomberg Government data.

Related: Mitch McConnell Hails Kirsten Sinema As ‘The Most Effective First-Term Senator’ He’s Seen In His Career

And look: Republicans clinch slim House majority, likely signaling deadlock in 2023

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said Sinema would retain her duties on the committee.

“I think she’s a good, effective senator, and I look forward to a productive session in the new, Democratic-majority Senate,” said Schumer, a New York Democrat. “We will maintain our new-found majority in committees, exercise our subpoena power, and be able to liquidate candidates without discharging votes.”

For the past two years, Democrats have controlled the Senate 50-50 only because Vice President Kamala Harris can cast deciding votes.

After Georgia Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock defeated Republican challenger Herschel Walker on Tuesday in a closely watched runoff election, Democrats were expected to enjoy a 51-49 majority in the Senate.

There is talk that Sinema’s announcement on Friday might have changed that, but analysts like Salisbury and Haines push against that view.

Haines wrote that “Sinema’s defection is another sign of the tentative rise of overt bipartisanship in Congress.” “There is a growing view that resolving issues is what the vast majority of voters want, and some lawmakers seem willing to risk the wrath of their party establishments to make it happen.”

US stock SPX, +0.09% DJIA, rose -0.07% on Friday but was on track for weekly losses.

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