NHS prepares for patient surge after ambulance workers strike | NHS

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The NHS is preparing for an influx of patients between now and Christmas after thousands of people delayed seeking treatment during the ambulance workers’ strike on Wednesday.

Leading doctors warn that the decision by many people in England and Wales not to seek help while paramedics are on a 24-hour layover will leave the NHS struggling to cope at a time when hospitals have traditionally reduced services for the holidays. .

The warning came amid indications that ministers, who resented the fact that nurses and midwives in Scotland rejected a 7.5% pay rise, now believe there is no deal to be struck with the health unions and are therefore now preparing for a winter-long battle of wills interspersed. by blows.

Thousands of ambulance workers, paramedics and others in England and Wales went on strike on Wednesday, leaving the NHS unable to respond to many 999 calls. Eight out of 10 ambulance unions in England have declared “critical incidents” due to a strain on resources.

Hospital chiefs have praised the public for heeding NHS advice to avoid risky activity should they be left incapacitated and unable to access A&E, and to only call 999 in the event of a life-threatening emergency.

However, the leader of Britain’s A&E doctors expressed concern that widespread shutdowns on Wednesday could lead to patients’ health deteriorating, in the same way that lack of contact with health services when Covid-19 strikes has led to sickness and even death.

Calls to 999 to request an ambulance dropped by up to 25%, while attendance at A&E was also much lower than normal, in a significant – but temporary – drop in the normally severe strain on ambulance services and hospitals.

“We have concerns about people not seeking help when they should. We’ve seen this in lockdown,” said Dr Adrian Boyle, chair of the Royal College of Emergency Medicine. “We are particularly concerned about the rebound effect, which means things could be much worse. in the coming days.”

Dr. Tim Coxley, president of the Society for Acute Medicine, echoed that concern. “The festive period will be very difficult,” he said, referring in particular to hospitals, which usually try to send as many patients as possible home for Christmas.

NHS bosses told the Guardian that hospitals could become busier and fuller than usual over Christmas, when there are only a limited number of staff on duty, with patients stuck in hospital for most of the festive period.

“After the strike is over, we will have [ambulance] “The crews are picking up people who have been at home on the floor for a long time, as well as people who didn’t try to come in on Wednesday because they knew about the strike,” said the chief executive of one acute hospital. “We think we will see more people come in on Thursdays and Fridays, before the Christmas weekend, with little hope of sending people home if they need support from social or community care. And then we go into Christmas and the New Year, when nothing is moving. “.

Saffron Cordery, acting chief executive of NHS Providers, said hospitals were facing a backlog in operations and clinic appointments being pushed back because of the ambulance withdrawal.

She said: “Leaders across the NHS also know that as this week’s strike draws to a close, the disruption is far from over. The fallout from the strike is likely to spill over into the coming days due to the adverse impact on various parts of the health and care system, and the need to reschedule elective appointments and patients. “There is a particular concern about patients who may have been delayed in seeking care, whose condition has deteriorated, and who are now presenting for treatment.”

The NHS union said its chief executives are concerned that patients will face increased risks to their health and speed of access to treatment due to what looks likely to become a protracted struggle between unions and government in the coming months.

Matthew Taylor, chief executive of the organisation, said: The concern is that this is just the beginning, the full impact of today [ambulance] The strike, along with the first two nursing strikes, will be felt not only today, but also in the days and weeks to come. Their fear is that the risks to patients will intensify, with future strikes planned and disputes showing no sign of resolution.”

He blamed the growing industrial strike campaign across the NHS, and the ensuing disruption to services, on the government’s offer of £1,400 payment for staff and ministers’ refusal to enter into any negotiations that might increase that amount.

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“In the most turbulent winter for health this country has faced, the government must strike a deal with the trade unions. We cannot allow this to drift into a prolonged winter of industrial work and a nagging war of attrition.”

That possibility appears to be closing in, as ministers harden their stance towards health unions after members of the Royal College of Nursing and the Royal College of Midwives in Scotland rejected what the Scottish government described as a “best and last” 7.5% payment offer.

After that, the government will not blink. They think, ‘Well if they’re rejecting 7.5% in Scotland, they’re going to reject anything we’re going to give them [above the existing £1,400 offer]”So there is no point in raising the bid – there is no agreement to be done,” said a source familiar with the ministerial thinking.

However, Stephen Dorrell, who was health secretary under John Major, has criticized the government’s refusal to raise its offer – which equates to an increase of about 4% for most staff – or to open talks on a possible raise.

Durrell, who has since joined the Liberal Democrats, told the Guardian: “The government has played their cards very badly. The only thing they should have tried to do was to avoid taking over the entire public sector at once.

There is a health service review body process. It would not have undermined it if ministers simply asked the review body to look again at the annual NHS settlement, given the exceptional circumstances of 11% inflation.”

But Steve Breen, the Tory MP and former health secretary, who now chairs the House of Commons health selection committee, backed Rishi Sunak’s refusal to reconsider this year’s wage settlement – the £1,400 figure that triggered the strikes.

Brian urged ministers to stand firm not to offer more money than recommended by the Wage Review Board. But he suggested next year’s pay review process could be accelerated to give ambulance workers the promise of another pay rise.

“There is no way ministers can trample on this process and there is no way they will,” he said. But they can tell a wage review board that they want shorter work based on the big report they did last year. That could be back before next summer, and by then we’ll be in a better place. But in the meantime, the unions have to stop the strikes.”

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