Darwin Nunez’s Liverpool form: Fouls, goals and more defeats – but the stats show plenty of reason for optimism | football news

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Depending on your point of view, Darwin Nunez has had either one of the most promising starts in a Premier League career or one of the most troubling. Only Erling Haaland has more chances than the Liverpool forward. The problem is that no one misses more.

On the face of it, five Premier League goals is a decent comeback from just eight matches in the Championship. But it is the manner of performance, even more than an appalling transfer fee that can reach £85m, that has so far divided opinion.

From the beginning, there have been ups and downs. A goal off the bench in the Community Shield. Another within minutes of making his Premier League debut at Fulham. He was then shown a red card against Crystal Palace for a header in his first home match.

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Liverpool’s Darwin Nunez missed three big chances in the 3-2 defeat by Manchester City

Since then, there have been mistakes, goals, and more mistakes. He summed up the victory over Aston Villa on Monday night. Some named Núñez their player of the match, and this was his contribution. Others pointed out the four good scoring chances he missed.

He had hauled two shots wide in defeat by Manchester City before Christmas, but there was a variety of fouls at Villa Park. Close term opportunity. Strange choice to jump over the ball instead of shooting. A sparkling shot when he might have touched it.

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The highs and lows of Darwin Nunez’s career so far at Liverpool.

Nunez is a raw talent, and ratings hinge on which of those two words one chooses to emphasize. For Jurgen Klopp, it’s pretty straightforward. “The potential is incredible. The pace. The attitude. A real factor. Everything is possible to develop and learn. It’s really exciting.”

Others might expect something a little closer to the final article. There are times when it is very clear that this player finished his first season in European football only recently in August 2020 – and that was in Spain’s second division.

This was a calculated risk by Liverpool, who are among the best recruits in elite football. They are drawn to those players who didn’t come through the academy path. With Nunez, as with Diogo Jota and Luis Diaz, the feeling is that it only increases their appetite for success.

Image: ignore the noise? Liverpool’s Darwin Nunez has been criticized for his profligacy

It also means that there is a lot to teach about taking care of the ball and the positions to occupy in and out of possession. But it’s worth it because of the qualities that can’t be taught. The hunger and physical advantages that make Nunez formidable.

His speed is evidenced by Premier League tracking data which reveals he is one of only two players to score faster than Haaland this season. His top speed of 36.5 kilometers per hour has only been surpassed by Anthony Gordon of Everton this season.

“He can maintain that speed for long distances,” David Padilla, his coach at Almeria, told Sky Sports. “That was great for counter-attacks. You can put a long ball on him and he can beat all the defenders even if they’re a meter or two ahead of him.”

Such is Nunez’s passion, he does these runs over and over again. He is third in the Premier League in sprints per 90 minutes this season, and has produced more such kicks than any other Liverpool player. This is the extra dimension he adds to the team.

“What he gives us is depth,” Klopp said after the Aston Villa match. This was particularly evident at Villa Park, where his movement expanded the game as he regularly found space at the back. It’s also hard to catch. “This is really difficult because he has incredible strength.”

The problem, right now, is that he misses a lot of later opportunities. Physically, he has shown his strength. Mentally, his attitude is top notch. Technically, the shortcomings in his game prevent him from taking full advantage.

Twelve chances that Opta considers “big chances” have been missed so far – no Premier League player has missed more. In fact, he misses a whopping 1.56 chances per 90 minutes this season – failing to score nearly twice as often as any other player in the competition.

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The good news for Nunez and Liverpool is that getting into these positions is the really hard part. In the long term, there is every reason to believe that he will score from these chances at a much better rate than he does now. This is very exciting.

In the past 10 years of the Premier League, every player who has taken more than 150 shots in a season has scored more than 20 goals in that campaign. The three players who took shots over a full century last season were among the four leading scorers. The link is clear.

The ability to bring things to an end is important, of course. But it is not the most important factor. One way to make this point is to compare the conversion rates of those players who have had the most big chances in the Premier League over the past decade.

Harry Kane has the best conversion rate but he only scores 53 per cent of them. If his 259 chances had fallen to Raheem Sterling instead – a player who converts 45 per cent of big chances and is seen as a poor scorer – he would have scored 116 of them rather than 137.

The point is that even if Kane wasn’t such a good kicker he would still be seen as a great kicker because what makes him great is the ability to be at the end of so many chances. Size really is king which is why Nunez’s numbers are so encouraging.

There is a precedent here, an occasion that Liverpool supporters will not miss. When Luis Suarez, another Uruguay striker, signed for the club, his end was initially questioned. He missed opportunities, and performed below expected targets for 18 months.

Then his production exploded. And while the goals expected in 90 minutes remained flat, Suarez went from 11 goals in his first full season to 23 in his second and 31 in his third – winning the Premier League Golden Boot and the European Golden Shoe.

Liverpool might accept something like that – and Klopp seems so calm that it seems as though he is already anticipating going up. “I’ve been in that situation many times before with strikers and everything will be fine. He’ll score goals, no doubt about that.”

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