Grab or pause for Macron as he unveils unpopular pension reform – POLITICO

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PARIS — Emmanuel Macron, commander-in-chief of the unrest in France, is advancing tackling one of the country’s many sacred cows: raising the retirement age, despite fierce opposition from trade unions and segments of the French public.

On Tuesday, his prime minister, Elisabeth Borne, is set to outline the sweeping steps to reform the pension system – a focus of Macron’s election campaign – which controversially aims to raise the legal retirement age from 62 to 64 or 65.

As I promised you, this year will be the year of pension reform aimed at balancing our system for the coming years and decades. “We need more work,” Macron said in his New Year’s Eve address.

The fate of the pension reform could determine the course of the remainder of Macron’s term at the Elysee. If the French president converts to Islam, he will have proven that he can succeed where his predecessors stumbled and failed so often. If he fails, the setback will thwart earlier promises that he can rule France despite losing his parliamentary majority last year.

But the reform bill comes at a very difficult time for the government as households and businesses are hit by inflation and increased energy and fuel bills after several schemes to mitigate the effects of the war in Ukraine were scrapped last month. Many fear street protests if pensions become the focus of growing discontent.

It’s hard to demonstrate against inflation, you can’t ask Putin to lower the price of gas. But if (pensions) reform starts to crystallize tensions, people may feel they can score a small victory by getting the government to abandon the reform,” said Bruno Janbart, vice president of polling institute OpinionWay.

Although some flexibility was indicated on fixing the legal retirement age, the government has come under heavy criticism from trade unions across the board, which are already preparing for nationwide protests and strikes. Macron’s government has engaged in lengthy discussions with unions over the past two weeks, but they have been largely unproductive. Debates are also expected to heat up in France’s National Assembly, where both the left and the right criticize Macron’s plans to reform France’s state pension system.

The struggle over pensions

The looming struggle over pensions is one of the biggest tests Macron has faced since his re-election last year. During the presidential election campaign, the French president pledged to reform the state pension system in France and bring it in line with neighboring European countries such as Spain and Germany, where the retirement age ranges between 65 and 67 years. Official forecasts show that the finances of the French state pension system are balanced in the short term but will run into deficit in the long term.

Successive previous presidents, such as Jacques Chirac and Nicolas Sarkozy, have attempted sweeping reforms, but have either failed completely or had to scale back their ambitions. Macron needs a victory to prove to the French that he is still a reform-minded president who is not afraid of upending the status quo. He also needs to show the Germans and others that France is not a benefactor in the Mediterranean club, but a sound financial partner determined to tackle high levels of public debt.

However, the failure would indicate that the French president has become a weak president after his party failed to obtain a majority in the parliamentary elections last June.

“I understand people worried about changes in the retirement age, but it is a topic we embody now, which the president has campaigned on. We must show that we can get the legislation done, which will enhance the credibility of the government and the president,” said Marie Lebecq, an MP from Macron’s Ennahda party.

Since losing its parliamentary majority, the government has managed to pass many bills, often with the private support of the conservative party rump Les Républicains. But things are different this time.

This is Macron’s second attempt to reform the pension system through Parliament Ludovic Marin/AFP via Getty Images

It is not the same type of repair. What’s been done so far, deals on bills, nothing, it’s peanuts. Conservative MP Pierre-Henri Dumont said the pension bill… This is a real moment of truth.

Debates between Macron’s party, the left-wing NUPES coalition and the far-right National Rally have been heated in recent months, but this time the opposition is hoping for a field day against the government over an already very unpopular bill. If Macron cannot pass the reform through parliament with Republican support, the government may revert to invoking Article 49.3 of the constitution to bypass parliament, raising the risk of a vote of no confidence.

The LR party has said it is willing to vote through pension reform on certain conditions and if changes to the legal retirement age are introduced more gradually than the president would like. This is promising for the government, but the Conservatives are divided and the leadership is not guaranteed to get votes.

This is also Macron’s second attempt to introduce pension reforms through parliament. In March 2020, the French president dropped an earlier version of the pension bill in the wake of the COVID-19 crisis and a wave of protests led by trade unions.

The ghost of the yellow jacket

But the ruin of the National Assembly is just one of the challenges the government faces. Macron’s prime minister has so far failed to include more moderate trade unions in reform plans, and nationwide days of protest and strike action are already being planned.

In a sign of just how nervous the government is, ministers have been bending over backwards to quell the nascent protest movement, whether it be among health workers, bakers, restaurant and bar owners. Last week, Macron promised a pay rise for doctors and dedicated aid for bakers facing soaring electricity bills.

“Risk [Macron] The country is in chaos and the people feel it is the fault of the government. “There is inflation and difficulties for small businesses, and now we will add strikes, demonstrations, and train cancellations,” Gunbart said.

Among the most troubling fallout for the government was the emergence of an unexpected fiery yellow vest-like movement in 2018 and 2019, which turned violent and forced Macron to back off a green fuel tax bill. It’s a risk the president’s supporters have tried to downplay.

“We have seen [recent] Protest movements that went completely out of the box. But on pensions, it’s a topic where trade unions play a very central role and remain engaged partners in the talks with us,” Liebeck said.

Other than expected confrontations with trade unions and opposition parties, there is little certainty for Macron over the next two months. However, the ordeal will be a long one, with a final vote on the bill not expected before May.

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