The rise of Wagner’s mercenary group – and what their success says about Putin’s invasion of Ukraine

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An arm torn by shrapnel with a wind of blood dripping from the sleeve, a deep gash in a face covered in mud, limp after being dragged through rubble—the Wagner fighter didn’t look like a menacing, cold-eyed killer of an elite mercenary outfit.

Talat Nazarbekov was captured in the eastern city of Bakhmut, following an ambush and gunfight. Two comrades who were also trying to infiltrate the Ukrainian positions were killed, their corpses lay nearby. Others returned wounded to the Russian base.

On the front line, Talat, a young Uzbek, said Wagner’s battalion was short of ammunition, supplies had not arrived, and the fire support they had been promised had not materialized: morale was very low.

The prisoner showed me and another journalist, this is what his Ukrainian captors wanted to hear. This was exactly what their intelligence suggested, they nodded. A captain in the 93rd Brigade said, “We will retake the areas occupied by Wagner, they are in bad condition, and we are ready.” “A lot of them won’t survive, this guy is lucky we really got him. He will be taken to the hospital for treatment.”

“They’ll shoot me when you guys go,” the Wagner fighter muttered sarcastically. He asked for a cigarette. One of the Ukrainian soldiers grinned at him. “We have to put you out of your misery,” he said, “but don’t worry, we won’t.” Talat was not executed in the accident, and I saw him a few days later in a hospital in Dnipro. But the Ukrainian advance didn’t happen either – both sides were stuck in attritional street fighting, with little to gain.

Wagner’s boss, Yevgeny Prigozhin, was keen to lower expectations in Moscow at the time. The situation near Bakhmut is difficult. “Ukrainian troops are putting up a decent resistance, and the legend of fugitive Ukrainians is just a legend,” he said in one of his Telegram messages.

Three months later, Russian forces under Wagner finally achieved a breakthrough in the Donbass, capturing most of the salt-mining town of Solidar, north of Bakhmut, giving it strategic leverage and a propaganda victory. While the fighting continues, the gains are the Kremlin’s only battlefield success since the summer.

Dramatic video clip depicting medical evacuation amidst fighting in Solidar

As they moved through the town to secure a network of underground tunnels, the Wagner Group said they found the body of one of two men from Britain — 48-year-old Andrew Bagshaw and Chris Barry, 28 — who had gone missing in the area, though they didn’t name any. one.

The gains at Solidar added to Prigozhin’s claims that his men were a far more effective force than many of the regular military units in Moscow. There are currently 50,000 of the company’s mercenaries in Ukraine, some recruited from prisons, making up a quarter of the total Russian force – and more are being prepared for deployment in the near future.

Prigozhin, nicknamed “Putin’s Chef” due to his ownership of a Russian state-contracted catering company, is a long-term confidant of the Russian president. It has been relatively low-key while Wagner has fanned out on behalf of the Kremlin in arenas including Libya, Syria, the Central African Republic, and most recently Mali.

But over the past few months, Prigozhin has repeatedly sought the spotlight, attacking the Kremlin military hierarchy over strategy and tactics as Ukraine has made steady progress on the field as Russian forces falter. He was joined in the harsh criticism by Ramzan Kadyrov, the ruler of Chechnya, whose forces are also in Ukraine. So are some hardcore military bloggers and influencers in Russia.

A Ukrainian Army’s Grad multiple rocket launcher fired missiles at Russian positions along the front line near Solidar

(AP)

Kadyrov commended Prigozhin — his “dear brother” — and advised his fighters, who number 20,000 and are officially part of Russia’s Rosgvardiya National Guard, to pay “close attention” to what Chief Wagner says.

The frequent transfers of senior Russian officers during the invasion of Ukraine indicate that President Putin remains unhappy with the way it is being handled. The latest to be replaced was General Sergei Surovikin, who lost his role as head of what Moscow calls its “special military operation” to General Valery Gerasimov, the country’s military chief, after just three months.

Pro-Kremlin media praised Surovkin, the former commander of the Russian Air Force, as “General Armageddon” for his aggressive strategy in Syria, including the smash-bombing of Aleppo. The general began a campaign to strike at civilian infrastructure in Ukraine. However, the damaging effect of this diminished as more drones and missiles were intercepted before they could reach their targets.

The Russian Defense Ministry said the appointment of General Gerasimov was to ensure “closer communication between the various branches of the armed forces and to improve the quality and effectiveness of the management of the forces.”

However, there have been reports of disagreements between Surovkin and Gerasimov – as well as the Minister of Defense, Sergei Shoigu. In this internal struggle for power, Prigozhin was a supporter of Surovikin and a critic of Shoigu.

Yevgeny Prigozhin provides food for Vladimir Putin at Prigozhin’s Restaurant outside Moscow in 2011

(AP)

The Wagner boss has many enemies in Moscow, and it is believed that they were behind the negative stories that have come to light recently. Most notable were tales of Prigozhin’s time in prison while serving a 13-year sentence for burglary and aggravated robbery.

In one video, a man, covered in prison tattoos and calling himself Sasha Korara, claims that Prigozhin was a “b****” and other gang boss while he was imprisoned. “He knew where he was and approved of where he was,” the presumed crime boss said.

Prigozhin’s allies have sought to dismiss these claims as distortions—a sign of how anxious those who oppose him are about his growing power.

It is unclear what effect the divisions and disagreements in the Russian military hierarchy have on the ground.

Control of Solidar would give access to 120 miles of tunnels that could be used to move troops and weapons. Prigozhin highlighted the merit of the underground passages. They can accommodate a large group of people at a depth of 80 to 100 meters, as well as tanks and infantry fighting vehicles. It can be stored but also can be moved through.

Personnel of the 43rd Heavy Artillery Brigade of the Ukrainian Army firing from tanks near Solidar

(Reuters)

The control of Solidar will also provide observation points for further artillery strikes on Bakhmut. Capturing Bakhmut would not only be a symbolic victory, but could pave the way for an offensive against the major Donbass cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.

Wagner has secured a range of weapons—including Su-25s, T-90 tanks, S-300 missile systems, TOS-1A heat-launched rocket launchers, heavy 23mm artillery, and Pantsir air defense missile systems—for its mission in Ukraine. Last month, the White House said the group was spending $100 million a month in Ukraine, as John Kirby, a spokesman for the US National Security Council, said the group had received a shipment of weapons from North Korea. The company also established training and recruitment centers parallel to the Russian Ministry of Defense in Belgorod and Kursk.

No other private army in the world has such an arsenal of weapons, and Wagner is expected to play a major role in the new campaign season that will begin after the winter hiatus. Both sides are planning attacks.

Arms is also a topic under discussion by Ukraine’s allies. Himar missile launchers and MLRSs supplied from the west turned the tide in Ukraine’s favor in the Donbass and south over the summer, and more of these systems are planned.

Armored fighting vehicles such as the American Bradleys, German Marders and French AMXs are also on the way, and the UK has announced that it will supply a small number of Challenger 2 battle tanks. Berlin is under pressure from allies to allow the transfer of German-made Leopard 2 tanks, in service with European armies, to Kyiv.

The arrival of armor – especially tanks – and artillery will have a major impact in the coming months, and play an important role in deciding what happens to Vladimir Putin’s war in the heart of Europe. In addition to those, like Yevgeny Prigozhin, who seek to gather strength amidst the carnage.

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