Al Jazeera Foreign Minister Joseph Wu warns of possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan – and attack could come in 2027 | world News

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Taiwan’s foreign minister said he believes China is now “more likely” to invade Taiwan to distract from leader Xi Jinping’s domestic troubles.

Speaking exclusively to Sky News in his first interview this year, Joseph Wu identified 2027 as the key date on which such action is likely to occur.

His words come at a time when tensions across the Taiwan Strait are the highest in many years, with China now flying fighter jets into Taiwanese airspace on a daily basis.

Mr. Wu also said the current “status quo” arrangement, in which Taiwan enjoys autonomy but does not formally declare independence, “may not last forever,” in a rare acknowledgment that the island may one day be absorbed or absorbed by China. become an independent country.

Taiwan is a democratic, self-governing island that China regards as its own.

Although it has never been under the control of the ruling Communist Party, bringing Taiwan under Chinese control has been described by President Xi Jinping as “the core of China’s fundamental interests”.

Mr. Wu acknowledged that “the situation last year compared to the previous two years is much worse,” but said: “For me, 2027 is the year we need to pay attention to.”

Read more: Could Taiwan be the next Ukraine?

In 2027, Xi Jinping is likely to move into his fourth term, and if in his previous three terms he could not claim any achievement during his office, he may need to consider something else to claim as his achievement or legacy.

“If you look at the Chinese situation right now, the economy is deteriorating. People are not happy, and the real estate sector seems to be on its way to collapse.

“If Xi Jinping cannot change the situation domestically in China, you may want to resort to using force or creating a crisis externally to divert domestic attention or show the Chinese that he has accomplished something.

“We are worried that Taiwan will become a scapegoat for him,” he added.

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0:37 China conducted military exercises near Taiwan last year

A small incident could spark a big war

Chinese fighter jets now fly into Taiwanese airspace and cross the so-called “middle line” – the unofficial sea border – on a daily basis.

The number increased fivefold between 2020 and 2022 with the highest ever daily count being recorded just three weeks ago.

Mr Wu said the “worst-case scenario” happening now was “more likely” than in previous years, and described how precarious the situation could be.

“Look at how close the Chinese planes are to our plane,” he said.

“If they cross the 24 nautical mile zone, some of our weapons systems may have to target those Chinese aircraft, and that could lead to an accident, although it may not have been intentional for the Chinese pilots to cross the 24 nautical miles.

“Often, you see that the sum of a small incident can spark a major war.

“We are concerned that this may happen.”

He added that the only thing preventing this sudden escalation now is “restraint”.

“Our pilots are very well trained, and they know they can’t fire the first shot,” said Mr. Wu.

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2:36 China displays its military might during the November air show

Is Taiwan ready for war against China?

There have been suggestions from military experts that Taiwan is not adequately prepared if war reaches the island.

Taiwan spends only 2.4% of its GDP on defense, which is less than countries like the United States and about half the amount that Israel spends.

According to the analysis, it also doesn’t have enough ammunition, struggles to meet recruitment quotas within the armed forces, and hasn’t focused enough on the kind of disproportionate capabilities it would need to fight a war with China.

The foreign minister dismissed the notion that Taiwan was complacent, but acknowledged that preparations had been slow in the past.

“We understand that in previous years we may not have had enough ammunition,” he said.

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“In previous years, we may not have enough training for our military personnel. In previous years, we understand that the number of our soldiers in defense of Taiwan may not be enough, but look at the reform measures announced by the president.”

Taiwan recently extended compulsory military service from four months to a year, increased the defense budget and is trying to start domestic production of drones and missiles.

“We are trying everything we can to make Taiwan ready, to make Taiwan able to defend itself,” Wu said.

While he insisted that Taiwan was willing to negotiate with China, he was clear that it did not “welcome political preconditions.”

“Accepting these Chinese preconditions means we submit to China, and this is something people here in Taiwan will never accept, but our door is open,” he said.

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