French-German relations under pressure on the anniversary of the Elysee – DW – 01/22/2023

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Today, Sunday, France and Germany celebrate the 60th anniversary of the Franco-German Elysee Treaty, a document that set a roadmap for bilateral cooperation between Paris and Berlin in foreign, defense and cultural policies.

French President Emmanuel Macron and German President Olaf Scholz will deliver speeches at the prestigious Sorbonne University in Paris, where the presidents of the two parliaments will lay a wreath at the Pantheon.

This afternoon, heads of state and lawmakers from both countries will hold a bilateral cabinet meeting at the Elysee, the residence of the French president.

A spokeswoman for the Elysee told the press ahead of the meeting that “the ceremony will highlight how vibrant Franco-German relations are and that we are jointly moving forward in Europe.”

Amid its many member states, France and Germany are often seen as the driving forces of the EU. Photo: Philipp von Ditfurth / dpa / picture alliance

“We will discuss the major issues of our cooperation,” she said, referring to defence, industrial policy, energy, EU reform and immigration. “We have made good use of the past few months to make progress in these areas.”

However, the public will be watching events closely and there is pressure on leaders to deliver some actual results, commentators say.

Tensions between Berlin and Paris

The last bilateral meeting of the Council of Ministers, which was scheduled for last October, was canceled—or, as France was quick to assert, “postponed”—despite the fact that the Elysee Treaty requires one meeting annually.

The schedule change was the culmination of months of increasingly difficult relations between the two sides.

During that time, Germany signed, among other things, a deal for a new European air defense system that did not include France – rejecting the joint Paris initiative with Italy.

For its part, France has agreed to a new hydrogen and gas pipeline with Spain and Portugal, ignoring the project favored by Germany. Macron publicly berated Germany for “isolating itself”.

But that canceled ministerial meeting turned out to be a wake-up call, according to Stefan Seidendorf, deputy director of the Ludwigsburg-based German-Franco Institute (DFI).

“Berlin government officials were amazed at the public pressure the ‘delay’ created,” he told DW.

“They thought that the Franco-German relationship would automatically continue on a good track, but that was not the case,” he explained.

After that, a series of bilateral meetings were held for the finance, economy and foreign ministers of the two countries to mend the strained relations.

The Elysee Treaty ‘does well’

Behind the scenes, the bilateral task forces were also active, Seidendorf said.

“It just goes to show that the Elysee Treaty is working so well – no other bilateral relationship is watched so closely by the public and has such an extensive and invisible infrastructure that can be activated in times of crisis,” the political expert said.

However, this extra effort is needed, believes Eric-Andre Martin, secretary general of the Study Committee on Franco-German Relations (CERVA) at the Paris-based Institute French for International Relations (IFRY).

“People felt that both countries missed an opportunity when they did not meet last year, and observers now have high expectations for Sunday’s meeting,” he told DW. “France and Germany will need to agree on a common roadmap, for example in the areas of energy or economic policies, very concrete projects.”

A unified response to US protectionism?

The latest diplomatic incident was in early January, when Macron single-handedly announced that France would provide light tanks to Ukraine, one day ruling out a German-American announcement that the two countries would deliver combat vehicles to Kyiv.

“The three heads of state were supposed to issue a joint declaration, but Macron rushed forward, thinking that if he didn’t pay, nothing would happen,” Seidendorf explained.

The analyst believes that the January incident makes a joint agreement on defense matters at Sunday’s meeting very unlikely.

“I think they would prefer to come up with a long-term response to the US Inflation Act,” he said.

Last August, the US Congress approved a $430 billion (€398 billion) package of tax cuts and subsidies aimed at benefiting companies active in the sustainable development sector. Europe largely views the IRA as a protectionist attempt to lure investment back to the US.

This prompted Germany and France to call for a European response to the legislation in December.

Seidendorf added that “Paris and Berlin could also agree on a new type of cooperation in the energy sector – for example an initiative for a European hydrogen pipeline.”

The Elysee confirmed that hydrogen will be on the agenda on Sunday.

Is the Franco-German EU engine still running?

But Barbara Kunz, a senior researcher and expert on Franco-German relations at the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy (IFSH) at the University of Hamburg, doesn’t think the upcoming meeting – or the Franco-German relationship – bodes well.

“France and Germany have been trying to reach a strategic level in their cooperation for decades, but this has never succeeded,” she told DW.

Koons attributes these difficulties to a lack of mutual understanding and deep structural differences. When it comes to energy, France continues to rely largely on nuclear power, while Germany will soon shut down its last nuclear reactors and turn increasingly to renewables.

While Germany wants to switch to renewables, France is sticking to nuclear power. Photo: Jean-Pierre Just

“One thing the two countries excel at in common is crisis management,” Koons says, but adds, “The current crisis over the Ukraine war further underscores how far apart Paris and Berlin are.”

“Germany seems determined to return to full dependence on NATO and is ready to make the necessary investments for that, while France aims for a European solution within the framework of Macron’s so-called strategic autonomy,” she said.

Koons sees the so-called Franco-German engine as a thing of the past. France and Germany have traditionally been seen as consensus-makers within the EU: once the two reach an agreement, all other EU member states are in favor of that compromise.

“But now, the 27 member states make up different groups of allies by topic,” she added.

However, Joseph de Wieck, a fellow for Europe at the Philadelphia-based Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI), believes that France and Germany will continue to lead the way in Europe.

Can Ukraine’s need for Western weapons help reunite Paris and Berlin again?

“The misunderstandings of the past few months are also due to the countries’ completely different power structures – Macron can largely decide for himself, while Scholz has to consult with his coalition partners and parliament,” de Wick told DW.

It is believed that the Ukraine war is bringing the two partner countries closer together.

“Opinion polls show that the French and Germans largely agree on sanctions against Russia and arms shipments,” de Wick said.

DFI expert Seidendorf shares this enduring belief in the Franco-German engine.

“I don’t think the EU’s center of power has shifted east,” he said. “This may be where the current problems and important parts of our energy infrastructure are, but political, economic and military power still remains” in Western Europe.

“It is still possible for a settlement between France and Germany to bring together all the member states of the European Union, as long as these two countries represent two rather opposing views.”

Edited by: John Chilton

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