Japanese Prime Minister’s Solution to Bad Birthrate Has Already been Denied by Young People | Japan

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Fumio Kishida is not a politician subject to dramatic statements. But this week he issued a stark warning to the Japanese people: Have more children, or risk dragging their country deeper into dysfunction.

His transformation in character from suave career politician to doomed leader is a reflection of the demographic crisis facing Japan, one of the fastest aging countries on Earth.

As he noted in a 45-minute speech to parliament on Monday, the number of births in Japan is estimated to have fallen below 800,000 last year.

“Japan is on the verge of whether we can continue to function as a society,” he said, adding that tackling the stubbornly low birth rate “cannot wait and cannot be postponed.”

Kishida’s language was striking, but his audience didn’t seem to be listening.

Navigating Japan’s demographic crisis proved insurmountable for the occupants of Kante — the prime minister’s office — long before Kishida moved in last fall.

The population of the world’s third-largest economy has declined for several years, and suffered a record decline of 644,000 in 2020-2021, according to government data. It is expected to drop from the current 125 million to an estimated 88 million in 2065 – a decrease of 30% in 45 years.

The birth rate remains at 1.3 — the average number of children a woman will have in her lifetime — well below the 2.1 needed to keep the population stable. And the number of people over 65 years of age continues to grow – they now account for more than 28% of the population.

The government’s response has been a two-pronged approach that combines harsh pleas to “go home and reproduce” with financial incentives for couples who heed the call.

For all his implicit warnings of a wretched, hollow Japan, Kishida largely sticks to a script already rejected by young Japanese.

Policies that address the structural obstacles to raising the birth rate were absent from his political discourse. Instead, he spoke in broad terms about a “child-first social economy,” spearheaded by a new Agency for Children and Families.

Under the loose plans that won’t be decided until March, families will get larger child benefits and working parents will have access to more after-school childcare. There will be reforms that will make it easier for parents to take time off to raise a family – all funded by the promised doubling in spending on children that will be completed in June.

But Japan’s past efforts to encourage people to have more children had limited impact. Pregnancy, childbirth and childcare benefits have failed, while some experts complain that politicians target parents who already have children while not asking themselves why young people are so reluctant to start families.

They talk about women like Nao Imai, an undergraduate who told the Guardian late last year why little feet crackling might not be part of her future. “I thought I would be married at twenty-five and a mother at twenty-seven,” she said. “But when I look at my older sister, who has a two-year-old daughter, I am afraid that I will have children.

When you have a child in Japan, the husband continues to work but the mother is expected to quit her job and take care of the children. I just feel like it’s hard to raise kids financially, mentally and physically. The government says it will provide better support for families with young children, but I don’t have much faith in politicians.”

Her skepticism goes to the heart of the challenge facing Kishida — a challenge in which he has chosen to acquire significant political capital as he grapples with record low approval ratings.

Because Imai is not alone. A survey conducted by the Nippon Foundation before MPs address found that only 16.5% of 17- to 19-year-olds thought they would marry, although a much larger proportion wanted to.

As the Mainichi Shimbun points out, Japanese youth have not suddenly become unnaturally resistant to marriage and family life. In a recent editorial, the newspaper said that problems arise when their ambitions meet economic reality.

“In Japan, families with children bear heavy economic burdens,” she said. “The high cost of education, such as school and university education, is a major reason why people do not have an ideal number of children. Child allowances help families who raise children, but they do not lead to a fundamental correction of economic inequalities.”

Previous Japanese efforts to encourage people to have more children had limited impact. Photograph: Yoshio Tsunoda/Aflo/REX/Shutterstock

As long as successive conservative governments have continued to shun immigration as part of a potential solution to chronic labor shortages and mounting pressure on health and social security financing, the consensus is that the answers must come from within.

However, Kishida’s speech was limited to specifics about the long-term pressures that couples say make them think twice about having larger families, or any children at all: the cost of compulsory and higher education, the high cost of living, and low and precarious wages. Jobs for casual workers, and punishingly long working hours make a healthy family life virtually impossible.

The Yomiuri Shimbun, a natural ally of Kishida’s party, shares their suspicions. “if [the low birthrate] In her editorial a few days before his speech, she said that the number of future workers will continue to decline, and society will lose its vitality.

“But how many more people would want to have children if existing monetary benefits were simply extended? The effectiveness of this measure is open to question.”

As Japan waits for its prime minister to elaborate, his LDP colleagues continue to send a very different message. Just last week, Taro Aso, a former prime minister with a history of missteps, blamed the declining birth rate on women who marry too late to make large families a realistic proposition.

Kishida warned that Japan had arrived at the “now or never moment” to address its child shortage. If experience is any guide, the smart money should be on the latter.

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