Chris Mason: The Tories are sad ahead of the three-way by-election test

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By Chris Mason, BBC News political editor

3 hours ago

photo caption,

Frome is the largest city in Rural Somerton County and Frome

On Thursday, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak faces a three-way test in the by-elections, after three of his deputies stepped down. BBC political editor Chris Mason visited each district to find out what activists and voters thought about the parties’ chances.

“We will all lose them horribly.”

Political parties like to manage expectations before elections. In other words, reduce their chances. But there is no mistaking the gloom in upper Conservative circles about the three contests to become MP in different parts of England.

Each race is fascinating because each race provides insight into the different types of race that will help shape the outcome of the next general election, expected next year.

I’ve been to North Yorkshire, Somerset and West London to speak with voters. I have spoken to senior activists from the main parties as well.

And yes, there are not many optimistic conservatives.

One minister told me, “Why do you go out and vote for us now? What is the motive? The motive is to give us a nudge, because these contests are not about choosing a government.”

Another Tory figure is sharper.

“Of course we’re going to lose. One is about lies. Another is about drugs. And the third is about not getting a peerage. How do you defend any of that?”

Conservative pessimism is matched by a widely volatile mood among Labor activists in Uxbridge, South Ruislip, Selby and Ainstee, and the Liberal Democrats in Somerton and Frome.

In all three locations, there is a recurring theme of important issues.

First, the cost of living. One mother pushing a cart through the streets of Frome told me that she thinks twice before putting on the kettle, knowing the spiraling cost of her bills.

It was no different at Selby or at Uxbridge.

Soaring prices and what many have called an economic “crisis”—for their budgets, and for the wider country.

The NHS is also a unifying theme from rural Somerset and North Yorkshire to the suburbs of North West London. Endless waiting at A&E. Difficulty getting an appointment with a doctor. Difficulty registering with an NHS dentist.

But let’s examine each contest separately – each offering an insight into a crucial struggle coming up in the general election expected next year.

First, to Somerton and Frome.

It’s the latest case study in the resurgence of the once rather quiet political rivalry. And perhaps the southwest of England is the keenest place.

Conservatives vs. Liberal Democrats.

For years Cornwall, Devon and Somerset were the heartlands of the Lib Democrats. But his time in coalition government with the Conservative Party nearly destroyed them. Only now are they showing signs of recovery.

Somerton and Frome held the party until their near-death experience, in 2015. They’re confident they’ll take it back again.

They believe they are well received in villages that have always been conservative. They hope the Guardian’s approval will help entice Labor and Green voters to vote for them instead.

He has been Sir Ed Davey, leader of the party, six times.

By contrast, one Tory campaigner, who had campaigned there, said: “We’re going to be absolutely wrecked in Somerset”.

Image source, Getty Images

photo caption,

Selby and Einsetti have been conservatives since the constituency boundaries were changed in 2010

About 240 miles from the Somerset countryside, it is a slice of the North Yorkshire countryside. Selby and Inesty.

This seat, on its present borders, is, or was, a strong Conservative constituency.

Beyond Selby and Tadcaster, it’s a patch of country. Labor could win a general election outright and comfortably without taking a seat like this.

However, conservatives still worry that it could prove fatal for them.

Labor maintains that for them a win would amount to “the largest majority we’ve had overturned since the end of World War Two” – a line that speaks to their confidence and the sloppiness of managing expectations, in case they don’t. manage it.

Yes, Selby was a Labor MP as recently as when the party was last in government in 2010. But constituency boundaries have changed since then.

Sir Keir Starmer’s party winning here would be an incredible feat, but it seems achievable.

and so finally to West London, to Uxbridge and South Ruislip.

This is a contest that has at its heart the central figure of the politics of the past few years: Boris Johnson. The former prime minister is the former deputy here. His resignation was the reason for these by-elections.

I’ve found no shortage of opinions about Mr. Johnson – from the unrepeatable to the warm, and sometimes a bit of the same person.

Uxbridge and South Ruislip have long been a conservative seat. But Labor has been eyeing the possibility of winning here for some time.

It is the kind of seat in which the party will face embarrassing questions if it fails to win; If you fail to convert the amazing national poll results into actual votes and an actual election win.

And most importantly, take a seat directly from the Conservatives.

But there is a twist here.

A stretch of what’s known as London’s Ultra Low Emissions Zone, which charges owners of the most polluting modes of transport to get around. Ollie’s, as he’s known for the short, really infuriates many here.

Its critics blame it on Labor Mayor of London Sadiq Khan.

“If we lose, it will be up to Oles,” a senior Labor source told me, adding that “the Tories have done a good job of trying to make it a one-issue contest, and for some it’s very motivating” — in other words it will determine how some people vote.

“It’s a hard seat,” says another London labor source, while claiming O’Lease’s importance could be overstated compared to issues such as the cost of living.

So, the Great Thursday of the by-election is coming up.

Not one, but a trio of contests in three different regions of England, with the power to make the political weather – and shape the mood of the Conservatives, Labor and Liberal Democrats, as a general election approaches ever closer.

You can see the full list of nominees for each district here:

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