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“We’re definitely going in the right direction,” said Dr. Peter Hotez, Dean of the College of Medicine. “And I think if we could vaccinate the entire American population in the summer, I think we could look at a really high quality of life.” National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine.
“This is not the time to express our opinions and congratulate ourselves,” Hotez told CNN last week.
Here’s how the US is making strides in the face of this pandemic — and why Americans shouldn’t feel a false sense of security:
The number of high-transmission counties is declining
Only about 2.4% of the US population – an estimated 8 million people – live in a county seen as experiencing “high” transmission of the coronavirus, according to a CNN analysis of data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
This is a huge improvement over two weeks ago, when about four times as many people – more than 9% of the US population – lived in a county believed to have a “high” transmission rate.
The CDC considers a county to have “high” transmission if there are 100 or more cases of Covid-19 per 100,000 residents.
Most Americans live in a county that is still considered to have “significant” transmission (13% of the population) or “moderate” transmission (about 75% of the population).
The recent dips are welcome news. But they are following a devastating increase earlier this year. “There is still a significant amount of transmission in the country,” Hotez said. “We’re up to where we were at this time last year. Then you remember what happened. We lowered our guard and there was this huge rise across the southern states that produced that second big peak,” Hotez said.
“We have vaccination rates in the southern states that are literally half the rate in the north,” he said.
“So I think there is a weak spot there in the southern states that we can still see another fifth peak that could come in the summer. Maybe not that bad because some people are vaccinated and some people are infected and recovered and so are partially immune. But there are still a lot of points weakness in the country.
New Covid-19 cases are dropping
For the first time since March 2020, the United States recorded a seven-day average of fewer than 20,000 new daily cases on May 31, according to Johns Hopkins University data.
And daily new cases are expected to continue declining this month, according to projections by a group from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Group projections combine projection models from universities and research groups across the country.
“This week’s national cluster forecasts that the number of newly reported COVID-19 cases is likely to decline over the next four weeks, with a potential 25,000 to 162,000 new cases reported in the week ending June 26,” the CDC said Wednesday. .
Children’s cases are declining
About 16,281 new cases of Covid-19 were reported among children during the week ending June 3, according to the American Academy of Pediatrics.
“This represents the lowest number of new weekly cases reported in the past year, since June 2020,” the agency said.
But children make up a larger portion of new Covid-19 cases. While adults and children aged 12 and over can get the vaccination, children under 12 are not yet eligible.
“Since the epidemic began, children have made up 14.1% of the total backlog of cases,” the association said. “For the week ending June 3, children were 17.2% of new weekly COVID-19 cases reported.”
While children are less likely to die from coronavirus than older adults, at least 309 children in the United States have died from Covid-19, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says, and the recent increase in Covid-19 hospitalizations among children aged Between 12 and 17 years old reinforces the importance of getting vaccinated or wearing masks for those who haven’t been vaccinated, according to a study released Friday in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Disease and Mortality Weekly Report.
The director of the Center for Disease Control, Dr. Rochelle Walinsky, Parents on vaccinating their teenage children.
“In the month leading up to Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine recommendations for teens and adolescents 12 years of age or older, the CDC noted troubling data regarding hospitalizations of adolescents with Covid-19,” Walinsky said at a White House coronavirus briefing Thursday. “.
She said the data should “double our drive to vaccinate adolescents and young adults”.
The pediatrician group says it is important for unvaccinated children over two years of age to continue to wear masks in public.
“And since unvaccinated children can still transmit the virus to others, wearing masks also protects others,” Dr. Yvonne Maldonado, chair of the AAP’s Infectious Diseases Committee, wrote on AAP’s HealthyChildren.org. Those qualified will help slow the spread of the coronavirus and reduce the chances of acquiring dangerous new variants or those that might avoid vaccine protection.
“Anything that limits transmission will help reduce the emergence of new variants. So definitely vaccinate and definitely wear masks,” Dr. Christopher Murray, director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, told CNN.
“I really think it depends a lot on how well we can get people to get vaccinated and how well we can get the vaccines to children once they are approved.”
Daily COVID-19 deaths are decreasing
Over the past week, the Covid-19 virus has killed an average of 400 Americans per day, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.
While that number is still high, it’s a huge improvement over recent months.
The CDC group projected on Wednesday that a total of 601,000 to 614,000 American lives had been lost to Covid-19 by June 26.
Its previous forecast, published on May 26, projected a total of 606,000 deaths from Covid-19 in the United States by June 19.
Covid-19 hospital admissions are expected to continue to improve
“The number of cases, hospitalizations and deaths from Covid-19 are all declining because millions have applied for a Covid-19 vaccine,” Walinsky said on May 25.
Hospitalizations are likely to decline over the next four weeks, with 700 to 3,700 confirmed new admissions of COVID-19 likely to be reported on June 28, 2021, according to a CDC group projection published Wednesday.
Scholarships, vacations, and $1 million in prizes could spur more vaccinations
Companies and states are offering big incentives for vaccination — including opportunities to win four-year college scholarships, tropical vacations, free beer and $1 million — to encourage more Americans to help end this pandemic.
Kroger is offering five payments of $1 million and 50 chances to win one year of free groceries for those vaccinated. West Virginia residents who get shots have chances to win trucks, hunting rifles, four-year scholarships, and a million dollar prize. CVS awards 1,000 prizes to people who get vaccinated at its pharmacies, including free cruises, tropical vacations, a VIP trip to Super Bowl LVI, gift cards for date nights, and $5,000 cash prizes for family reunions. Awards for adults and five full college scholarships for children ages 12-17 who are vaccinated. Republican Governor Mike DeWine told CNN that the program led to a 94% increase in vaccinations among 16- to 17-year-olds. If 70% of U.S. adults get at least one dose of the vaccine before July 4, Budweiser brewery Anheuser-Busch will buy America’s next round of beer, soda, nonalcoholic beverage, or other AB products.” (As of As of Monday, 63.7% of adults in the United States had received at least one dose of the vaccine.)
Another incentive for vaccination was less obvious: the ability to safely stay away from masks and halt social distancing in most places.
Shortly after Walensky said fully vaccinated people don’t need to wear masks in most places, interest in Covid-19 vaccines soared on May 13. People’s decision to get vaccinated,” Vaccine co-founder John Brownstein told CNN in May. VaccineFinder operates VaccineFinder.gov — where people can find nearby vaccination sites.
Actual vaccinations — not just visits to the site — also rose on May 13 after nearly a month of declines, according to CDC data.
But since then, the number of new people fully vaccinated each week has declined, according to the data.
It is not clear when or even whether the United States will reach herd immunity. As of Monday, only 42% of Americans have been fully vaccinated, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. “When you have high (transmissible) variables like the B.1.1.7 variable, what that means is we are going to have to make 75% 80% of the total US population.”
“It basically means that all adults and all teens” need to be vaccinated, he said.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said that even those who have already been infected with the Coronavirus should get vaccinated because research shows that immunity achieved through vaccination is better than immunity through previous infection.
“We need to be vaccinated because vaccines are very effective. They are better than the traditional response you get from a natural infection,” Fauci said at a White House briefing on the coronavirus last month.
Fauci said lab research shows that those who previously had Covid-19 and received two doses of the mRNA vaccine “have an intriguingly increased protection against variants of concern.”
Hotez agreed that vaccination – not infection – is the way to end this epidemic.
“Yes, I think we can vaccinate our way out of this pandemic in the United States,” Hotez said.
“But it’s a high barrier. And all adults, all teens need to be vaccinated.”
Vaccinated Americans return to their normal lives حياتهم
Several states have lifted mask mandates after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said most fully vaccinated people do not need to wear masks in most places.
More businesses are starting to fully reopen as more people get vaccinated.
Memorial Day marked the first major holiday of the pandemic where fully vaccinated people can enjoy nearby gatherings without masks.
But it’s unclear how many unvaccinated Americans have let off their guard — and whether that might erase some of the recent gains.
CNN medical analyst Dr. Lena Wen said shortly after the holiday that Memorial Day weekend “was the first major stress test.”
“The restrictions have been lifted en masse, and people are going about their normal lives. We know that in the past, after major holidays and increased travel, we had a huge rise in infection,” she said.
She said it will take about two weeks to see if Memorial Day events lead to a spike in new Covid-19 cases.
But Americans should not get a false sense of security. Murray and Wayne said Covid-19 numbers are expected to drop in the summer — and may rise again this winter if not enough people are vaccinated soon.
“One of the concerns…that I’ve talked about before is maybe summer is going to be great, and that’s something that should definitely be celebrated. But I also think that removes the urgency of vaccinating people. I’m thinking, ‘Okay, I would have done that. But now I don’t think it’s a big deal,” Wen said.
“We could be fine in the summer. But then in the fall, we could make another comeback. So all this is to say we’re definitely in a much better place than before. But we’re not in the clear — not by a long hit.”
CNN’s Deidre MacPhillips, Elizabeth Cohen, Michael Needleman and Naomi Thomas contributed to this report.
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