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Tropical turbulence heading toward the Louisiana coast didn’t turn into a depression or tropical storm as meteorologists expected Friday night, according to a 10 p.m. National Hurricane Center update.
In the hours before the landfall, which is expected to occur early Saturday, much of the New Orleans area was inundated with hours of rain. More heavy rains are expected, and officials have warned residents of severe weather threats, such as flooding, cyclones and storm surge.
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However, the turbulence path turned slightly eastward on Friday, reducing the threat of severe weather in New Orleans and canceling flood monitoring in the Baton Rouge metro.
Here’s what we know from the National Hurricane Center about the tropics as of 10 p.m. Friday
Land, formation imminent
Meteorologists told the NHC’s 10 p.m. update that the turbulence was moving north at 13 mph in the Gulf. It was about 60 miles southeast of Morgan, Louisiana, and it withstood winds of 45 miles per hour.
“Although the turbulence has wind speeds of the intensity of a tropical storm, it has not been named a tropical storm yet because its epicenter is ill-defined and widespread, as evidenced by Air Force Hurricane Hunter data and surface observations,” Kangalusi said at 4 p.m. .
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Forecasters expect this storm to make landfall in the next few hours, with the storm’s center reaching the coast in about six hours. At about this time, the NHC said it was still very likely that the storm would form into a tropical depression or Tropical Storm Claudette on Saturday morning, although the chances of it developing are down to 80%.
Jack Bevin, chief hurricane specialist, noted in the 10 p.m. update that development time is running out due to turbulence as it approaches the ground.
“However, it should be noted that in this case, landfall will not immediately put an end to the chances of developing tropical or subtropical cyclones, as strong winds and accompanying convection will remain above the water for at least 12 hours.”
This storm should weaken significantly as it moves over land on Saturday afternoon before turning in a northeast-northeast direction.
Meteorologists with the National Weather Service’s Slidell office said Friday night that only 2 to 3 inches of more rain fell from Interstate 55 and the Pearl River Basin through Saturday. An additional four to 8 inches of rain would have been possible on the Mississippi Coast.
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A South Coast Flood Warning was issued Friday evening after up to 3 inches of rain fell on the New Orleans area. North Shore, including Slidell and Lacombe, experienced flash flooding as of 2:15 a.m., with more than 3 inches of rain reported in the area.
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“The rain currently occurring over the city is likely to be the heaviest this evening…We expect this to continue over the next hour, perhaps two hours,” said Megan Williams, a meteorologist for NWS shortly after the 7 p.m. update. “Precipitation still feels like 1 to 2 inches per hour, and winds are gusting 30 to 40 miles per hour, especially for areas along the lake.”
10:00 p.m.: Concerns grow about potential street flooding/sudden flooding eventually across parts of North Shore, east through coastal MS. Heavy rain will continue. Use extreme caution if you must travel in this area. #lawx #mswx pic.twitter.com/ZNa7oBdeaW
– NWS New Orleans (@NWSNewOrleans) June 19, 2021
A tropical storm warning remained in effect from just east of Morgan to the eastern border of Walton County, Florida.
A flood watch remained in effect for much of southeastern Louisiana through Sunday 7 a.m., although the clock was raised Friday at 3 p.m. for the parishes of Baton Rouge, Ascension, Assumption, Livingston and St. James.
Minor coastal flooding was also expected, with a coastal flood warning of 2 to 3 feet of water in effect from southern Homa to the Pearl River Estuary and as far east as the coasts of Mississippi and Alabama. The warning extends until Saturday at 7 pm
Increased tides, strong winds, and hurricanes are also possible. Forecasters warned of storm surge in coastal areas to 3 feet
Morgan City, LA to Okaloosa / Walton County Line, FL … 2-3 feet Bourne Lake and Mobile Bay … 2-3 feet Lake Pontchartrain and Moripas Lake … 1-2 feet Okaloosa / Walton County Line, FL to Panama City, Florida … 1 m 2 Pensacola Bay, Choctawatchee Bay, St. Andrew Bay … 1-5 m Cameron, LA to Morgan City, LA … 1-2 ftVermilion Bay … 1-2 ft
Turbulence in the Gulf is the only system being monitored by the NHC as of 10 p.m. Friday.
After Claudette, the next available names are Danny and Elsa for future storms. Subtropical Storm Anna formed on May 22 in the Atlantic Ocean, eventually becoming a tropical storm. Tropical Storm Bill formed Tuesday in the Atlantic.
Hurricane season currently begins on June 1.
The shaded area in the drawing is where the storm could develop and is not a path. The National Hurricane Center releases a path when a tropical depression is forming or about to form.
The categories, in order of increasing strength, are tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes (categories 1 to 5). Systems are named when they develop into a tropical storm.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30.
See the full forecast here.
Writers Mark Schleifstein and Carly Wells contributed to this story.
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