Hurricane Elsa is getting stronger while the forecast becomes somewhat more certain

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Hurricane Elsa intensified early Friday as it passed over the islands of the southeastern Caribbean. It is now accelerating across the eastern Caribbean towards the southern coast of Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Its forward speed adds to its top winds, which are estimated at 85 miles per hour.

A strong trans-Atlantic high pressure system is driving Elsa to the west, but its impact will wane through Saturday, so the storm’s maximum winds should begin to decrease as the system’s forward speed slows.

By late Saturday, the southern part of Haiti may come into effect, and on Sunday the storm is expected to interact with Haiti, Jamaica and Cuba. As a result, the overhead wind should descend.

Computer forecast models came in much better agreement on Friday afternoon on the forecast track. As they spread Thursday from the center of the Gulf to the eastern Bahamas, they are now focused on the official National Hurricane Center forecast as represented by the cone.

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They also better agree that Elsa will be weakened due to her interactions with land in the Caribbean islands, although the amount of weakness varies from computer to computer.

How will Hurricane Elsa affect the islands? (National Hurricane Center)

Oftentimes, computer forecasting models agree better when the storm becomes better organized, and that appears to be what happened on Friday. However, we cannot be 100% sure of cause and effect. That’s why we still have to allow for the possibility that Elsa can shoot the gap between Cuba and Jamaica, or that there is another factor that changes the intensity of the storm when it reaches the Florida periphery.

Right now, the National Hurricane Center is forecasting a strong tropical storm near Florida’s west coast, but there’s still a lot to play in this forecast. However, we do not expect to see a strong hurricane near or over Florida at this time.

So the big question in the forecast is what will happen on Sunday – how will the interaction on Earth be? Will friction with the ground greatly impair circulation, or damage it a little?

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We should start feeling the effects of the storm in South Florida late Monday through Tuesday as Elsa cruises north. It’s too early to know exactly what that effect will be, but we’re not expecting a strong storm at this time.

Elsa will be moving straight, so no extra rain should go on, unless we’re lucky and get stuck under the band. Heavy rain over all the water that has already fallen in the past few weeks is raising fears of flooding, of course.

Stay tuned for changes, as always. We still have ways to go.

Five in the evening consultation. (National Hurricane Center)

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