Elsa hits the Florida Keys with heavy rain and tropical storm winds » Yale Climate Links

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Tropical storm warnings, storm surge warnings, and hurricane hours await on much of Florida’s west coast as Tropical Storm Elsa heads toward its expected landing Wednesday morning in the state’s Big Bend area. At 11 a.m. EDT, Elsa was 65 miles west-northwest of Key West, moving north-northwest at 10 mph with maximum winds of 60 mph and a central pressure of 1,007 mb. Heavy rain and winds in excess of tropical storm strength affected parts of the Florida Keys: Key West recorded sustained winds of 43 mph, gusting up to 59 mph, at 10:02 a.m. EDT. Sand Key, just west of Key West, reported sustained winds of 53 mph, gusting to 63 mph at 9:50 a.m. EDT. Nine personal weather stations in the Weather Underground Network in Key West captured 4-7 inches of rain between midnight and 12:30 p.m. EDT Tuesday.

Satellite images Tuesday afternoon revealed that Elsa was lopsided, with the center of rotation exposed with no heavy thunderstorms on the west side of the center. Strong upper-level winds from the west were creating 10-20 knots of wind shear and pushing dry air on the west side of Elsa into its core, disabling the storm. Radar images showed that Elsa had built about 50% of the eye wall on the northeast side of the center of rotation, but wind shear and dry air on Elsa’s west side were preventing the storm from closing an entire circular eye wall and forming an eye.

Figure 1. Elsa visible satellite image at 11:30 a.m. EDT Tuesday, July 6, 2021 (Image Source: NOAA/RAMMB/Colorado State University) Elsa’s long rampage through the Caribbean

On Monday afternoon, Elsa made landfall in central Cuba with winds of 60 mph, and crossed the country in about eight hours before emerging into the Florida Strait east of Havana. Elsa weakened 50 mph winds while transiting Cuba, resulting in 24-hour precipitation in excess of 200 mm (eight inches) to two stations. According to teleSUR, Elsa has not severely affected the country.

On Sunday, Elsa passed north of Jamaica, bringing 3-5 inches of torrential rain into the capital, Kingston. Jamaica Gleaner has reported severe flash flooding and severe road damage in Jamaica.

On Saturday, Elsa sped along the southern coast of Hispaniola, bringing heavy rain and high surf to the coasts of Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Weather.com reports that two people have died in collapsing walls in the Dominican Republic. Haiti survived major floods from Elsa. Elsa on Friday passed through the Lesser Antilles as a Category 1 hurricane with speeds of 75 mph, killing one person in St. Lucia. Agricultural damages in St. Lucia were estimated at $12.5 million.

Figure 2. 3-day rainfall forecast for Tropical Storm Elsa as of 8 a.m. EDT Friday, July 9 from the National Hurricane Center.

Elsa is expected to maintain a forward speed of 10-15 mph and gradually perform a sloping turn to the northeast over the next day, making landfall north of Tampa in the Big Bend area of ​​Florida Wednesday morning. The water Elsa will traverse is warm, with a sea surface temperature of 29°C (84°F). Wind shear will be a moderate 10 to 20 knots, though, which will continue to interfere with development by forcing dry air on Elsa’s west side into its circulation. Together, these conditions are favorable only for slow development. Higher intensity models Tuesday morning called, at most, a five-mph increase in Elsa’s winds before making landfall in Florida. The National Hurricane Center predicted an increase of 10 miles per hour, which put it up to 70 miles per hour on land — just under the force of a hurricane. Their higher intensity forecast may reflect the latest output from the normally reliable European model, which 6Z runs on Tuesday predicted that Elsa will have maximum winds of 70-75 mph at 8 a.m. EDT on Wednesday.

Figure 3. Peak wind forecast in knots (multiply by 1.15 to convert to mph) for Tropical Storm Elsa through Friday, July 9, from 6Z Tuesday, July 6, running the GFS model. Wind gusts in excess of tropical storm strength (34 knots, in yellow) are expected to affect much of western Florida and parts of the coast of Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina. (Photo Credit: weathermodels.com) Heavy rain, damaging winds, flash floods, and a few hurricanes for Florida

Elsa is expected to bring all of the dangerous effects typically seen in a strong tropical storm to western Florida, including flash floods of 3-5 inches of rain and coastal flooding of 1 to 4 feet (and up to 5 feet) of storm surge in Tampa Bay ), strong winds over 50 mph, and possibly also some hurricanes. On Monday night, a tornado warning was issued for Miami-Dade County based on a radar-detected signature, but no confirmed tornado landed. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Storm Prediction Center placed much of western Florida in their “slight risk” zone due to hurricanes on Tuesday.

Elsa is expected to weaken to a tropical depression as it moves inland over Florida and Georgia on Wednesday, but it may briefly regain tropical storm status as it moves off the mid-Atlantic coast Thursday night. Elsa will then accelerate to the northeast as a post-tropical cyclone with winds of 40-45 mph, affecting Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, Canada, on Friday and Saturday.

Bob Henson contributed to this post.

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