After the arrest of the former president, the ruling African National Congress became more divided

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Nkandla, South Africa – The threat of bloodshed and civil unrest hung in the air for days, but it quickly and painlessly disappeared under the country’s star-freckled skies.

When Jacob Zuma, the former South African president, was taken late Wednesday to prison from his Nkandla home in a motorcade of luxury cars, there was relief that his supporters’ pledge to fight the police to the death to prevent his arrest never came.

But while the start of Mr Zuma’s 15-month prison sentence for contempt has unfolded smoothly, the path for an African liberation party may be far from easy. The imprisonment of Mr Zuma, 79, has led to a deeper rift in the ruling African National Congress, which has long been split between allies of the former president and current president, Cyril Ramaphosa, according to party members and political analysts.

Zuma’s camp, asserting that Mr. Zuma was treated unfairly, quickly formulated his imprisonment as an extension of his legacy as a freedom fighter, which included a decade of confinement on Robben Island alongside Nelson Mandela. There were calls for civil disobedience and a challenge to the current party leadership.

Questions now swirl about whether the divisions will further erode the party’s electoral dominance, with Zuma’s angry supporters likely to turn away from a party they insist he has abused. And some fear the impact that internal divisions in the ANC could have on a government battling a slew of colossal challenges: staggering unemployment, a vicious third wave of coronavirus infections, massive inequality, and poor basic services such as water and electricity.

“These internal battles, by the way, have nothing to do with what is in the best interest of the majority of people,” said Tshepo Madlingozi, a professor of law at the University of the Witwatersrand in Johannesburg. “I’m afraid that this kind of division and internal battles shifts our focus away from the real issues.”

Experts said Ramaphosa, who was Zuma’s deputy but is now his opponent, may in some ways be able to tighten his grip on the party and government.

He rose to power on a pledge to root out the corruption that had become endemic during the Zuma years. Mr Zuma’s arrest may send a warning to the former president’s allies, some of whom have legal entanglements related to corruption.

It may also force some of Mr. Zuma’s allies within the party to distance themselves from him out of political expediency and adherence to Mr Ramaphosa’s program of government.

Mr. Ramaphosa, 68, is a billionaire who made much of his fortune in business investments during post-apartheid efforts in black economic empowerment. His governance efforts have largely focused on restoring business confidence in South Africa by nurturing the country beyond an era in which graft may have alienated many investors and damaged economic prospects and the livelihoods of ordinary citizens.

Critics argue that Mr. Ramaphosa failed to adopt an aggressive strategy to eliminate racial disparities in wealth in the country, and accuse him of helping the white minority in South Africa maintain their economic hegemony.

Zuma’s supporters claim to promote a program called Radical Economic Transformation, which seeks to increase the wealth of blacks through things like land grabs owned by whites. They portray Mr. Ramaphosa not as a crusader against corruption, but as someone who uses the courts to settle political scores.

The ANC appeared to recognize its fragile state, as it issued a statement on Thursday praising Mr Zuma for turning himself in and also stressing the importance of the rule of law.

“Without a doubt, this is a difficult period in the movement, and we call on our members to remain calm,” she said.

On Friday, Zuma loyalists took to the streets of KwaZulu-Natal, Mr. Zuma’s eastern province, to protest by blocking roads, looting shops and setting fires in a campaign promoted on Twitter under the hashtag #FreeJacobZuma. One of Mr Zuma’s daughters, Dodozil Zuma Sambodla, urged the demonstrations, posting videos of some of the protests on Twitter with messages of praise.

Analysts have said that the various factions within the ANC are often less aligned with ideology and more conducive to political survival. Some party officials and members have shifted their allegiances between Mr. Zuma and Mr. Ramaphosa, with positions within the party and government often acting as currency that determines where loyalty lies.

The Ramaphosa faction won two battles on Friday. In separate rulings, judges allowed Mr Zuma’s imprisonment to stand and supported the suspension of the ANC, Ace Magachul, Official No. 3 and close ally of Mr Zuma, who faces criminal charges for corruption.

It is unclear how strong Mr Zuma’s support is at the moment, or whether he could pose a real challenge to Mr Ramaphosa at next year’s national electoral conference, where the party leader will be chosen.

“Being a Zuma supporter sometimes it does some damage, especially if you are a young leader,” said Numvula Mdloli, 31, an active ANC member in KwaZulu-Natal. “You get sidelined sometimes.”

Ms. Madloli said she supported Mr. Zuma because she felt it was in line with a radical economic transformation, and believed he was punishing for that view.

During a rally outside Mr Zuma’s home on Sunday, Mr Majacholi urged hundreds of his supporters to back away from the party leadership’s directives.

“They want the comrades to be dissolved and removed,” said Mr. Magachuli to the raging crowd. “When they replace you as a branch, you must remain a branch. When they suspend you, you must remain a member of the ANC. And they should not intimidate you.”

Mr Zuma has publicly criticized the judiciary as being biased against him, suggesting, without evidence, that he was the victim of a conspiracy.

Ultimately, Mr Zuma succumbed to arrest at the last possible hour, much as he quit the presidency in 2018 after days of wrangling with his party.

Back then, as now, Mr. Zuma hinted at the possibility of civil unrest if he didn’t get what he wanted.

Mr. Zuma’s arrest came after he refused to appear before a corruption investigation launched in 2018 that revealed compelling evidence about the extent of corruption during his administration.

“They morally undermine Zuma to the point that he becomes isolated,” said Ralph Mathekga, a political analyst in Johannesburg.

Mr Zuma ignored an order by the Constitutional Court, the country’s highest judicial body, to testify, and the court sentenced him to prison for contempt.

He can be released on parole after serving a little less than four months.

Although he is already behind bars, Mr. Zuma has not given up his fight. His lawyers filed a petition asking the Constitutional Court to overturn the prison order, and the court agreed to hear arguments on Monday.

In the days leading up to Mr. Zuma’s arrest, party officials worked hard to find a peaceful solution.

Mdomesini Ntuli, secretary of the ANC in KwaZulu-Natal, was among a delegation of officials who met the former president and stressed the importance of avoiding violence if he was arrested.

Ntuli said he did not expect a mass exit from the party by Zuma’s supporters. At least not yet.

“I think what’s probably going to happen is that you might have deep divisions and factions, which are going to be going down each other’s throats,” he said. “But I don’t think anyone would want to get out of the ANC and form another organization.”

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