The research suggests that the lunar oscillation will intensify flooding along the coasts of the United States by the mid-2030s

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High Tide Floods in Honolulu, Hawaii Photo: Hawaii Sea Grant King Tides Project

Frequent tidal flooding is expected to worsen as sea levels continue to rise due to climate change, but as a new study warns, the regularly occurring 18.6-year cycle involving the Moon could lead to unprecedented flooding along the coasts of the United States in 2030.

A nagging flood, a flood on a sunny day, or a high tide flood – they are all the same thing, nagging pain in the ass. In 2019, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) tracked more than 600 frequent high tide flood events, in which high tides extend 2 feet (0.6 m) above normal. These floods are not life-threatening, but they can damage coastal infrastructure in affected areas and cause inconveniences such as flooded parking lots. Needless to say, disturbing floods are a frequent occurrence due to human-caused climate change, and are expected to get worse as sea levels continue to rise.

If that wasn’t bad enough, the lunar’s 18.6-year cycle is expected to amplify this effect further, according to new research published in Nature Climate Change. The research authors, led by Phil Thompson of the University of Hawaii, say that the confluence of rising sea levels and the periodic oscillation of the Moon’s orbit will increase the frequency and intensity of high tide floods along the US ocean coast. By the mid-2030s, tidal floods could occur in batches lasting a month or more and on an almost daily basis, scientists say. Members of the NASA Sea Level Change Science Team from the University of Hawaii contributed to this research.

Scientists have known about this oscillation in the Moon’s orbit since the early 1700s, as well as how alignments involving the Moon, Earth, and Sun can affect tides. During the first half of this cycle, the tides are below average and low tides are higher than normal. During the other half of the cycle, both high and low tides are amplified, appearing higher and lower than normal. The reason for this has to do with the gravitational pull of the moon, which causes the tides around the Earth. We are currently in the amplification phase of this cycle, but the Moon’s gravity does not affect the tides to the degree expected in the mid-2030s when the amplification phase will renew.

All this is well known, but now scientists have to predict the impact of this lunar cycle in the era of climate change and rising sea levels. In fact, the situation looks bad, the moon is swaying or not. Figures provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) paint a bleak picture, with estimates that global sea levels will rise by at least 12 inches (0.3 meters) by the end of the century. Unfortunately, the world is currently on track for a worst-case sea-level rise scenario that scientists have crafted, and researchers have revealed increasingly worrying signs about Antarctica’s ice. As of 2014, approximately 40% of the US population lives in coastal areas that may be vulnerable to rising sea levels.

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“Low areas near sea level are increasingly vulnerable and suffering from increased flooding, and will only get worse,” NASA Administrator Bill Nelson said in a statement. “The combination of the moon’s gravity, rising sea levels, and climate change will continue to exacerbate coastal flooding on our coasts and around the world.”

To build the new predictive model, Thompson and colleagues studied tidal information collected by 90 gauges distributed along the coasts of the United States, statistics on floods, meteorological events such as El Niño events, and astronomical cycles, among other data points. Frequent tidal flooding is expected frequently along nearly the coasts of the US mainland, Hawaii, and Guam. Alaska won’t have these problems for at least another decade or more, because its land masses are actually rising due to geologic processes.

Thompson said high tide floods aren’t as bad as hurricane storms, but he warned of cumulative effects and also the emergence of “leaky sinks” as a public health issue. In the study, the scientists concluded that urban planners should heed the new findings and act accordingly.

More: Sea-level rise alone threatens to crush the global economy.

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